Secret peace roadmap between India and Pakistan brokered by leading United Arab Emirates royalty

Photographer: Aamir Qureshi / AFP / Getty Images

About 24 hours after military chiefs in India and Pakistan surprised the world last month with a rare joint commitment to abide by a 2003 ceasefire agreement, the UAE’s top diplomat went to New Delhi for a quick visit. of a day.

The UAE official Reading the February 26 meeting gave little clue as to what Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed spoke to his Indian counterpart Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, noting that they “discussed all regional and international issues of common interest and exchanged views about them”

Still, behind closed doors, the India-Pakistan ceasefire was a milestone in the secret negotiations mediated by the United Arab Emirates that started months earlier, according to officials aware of the situation that they asked not to be identified. The ceasefire, someone said, is just the beginning of a major script to forge a lasting peace between neighbors, who have nuclear weapons and fight regularly over a decades-long territorial dispute.

The next step in the process, the official said, involves both sides reinstating envoys in New Delhi and Islamabad, who were withdrawn in 2019 after Pakistan protested India’s decision to revoke seven decades of autonomy for the disputed Muslim-majority state. Jammu and Kashmir. Then comes the difficult part: conversations about the resumption of trade and a lasting resolution on Kashmir, the subject of three wars since India and Pakistan became independent from Britain in 1947.

Over the years, India and Pakistan have routinely opened up peace only to see them fail quickly, especially since both sides often use the issue to arouse emotions at election time. Officials said expectations were low that the current strain would reach far beyond the return of envoys and a resumption of trade across Punjab’s land border.

But that process appears to be the most concentrated effort in years, and it comes as the Biden government seeks broader peace talks over Afghanistan – a place where the two countries have struggled for influence for years. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants to boost growth and focus military resources on the border with China, while Pakistan’s leaders are also facing economic problems and looking to make a good impression on the United States and other powers.

Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not comment on the negotiations or the role of the United Arab Emirates, while the Ministries of Foreign Affairs of India and the United Arab Emirates did not immediately comment.

Last week, the head of the Pakistani army, General Qamar Javed Bajwa he asked India “to bury the past and move on”, while saying that the military was ready to start negotiations to resolve “all of our outstanding issues”. The comments came a day after Prime Minister Imran Khan called for a resolution on Kashmir, which he described as “the only issue that stops us”.

On Saturday, Modi sent a tweet wishing Khan luck after he was diagnosed with Covid-19 – another sign that relations between countries are getting warmer.

The United Arab Emirates, which has historic diplomatic and commercial relations with India and Pakistan, has taken on a more assertive international role under Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan’s de facto government. The biggest change took place in the Middle East, where the Gulf State intervened in conflicts and supported groups and regional leaders. But it has also looked to Asia as it strengthens political alliances in addition to its role as a center for global trade and logistics.

India-Pakistan ties were effectively severed two years ago after a suicide attack in India-controlled Kashmir killed 40 Indian soldiers, prompting the Modi government to authorize air strikes on alleged terrorist facilities within Pakistan. THE The joint statement last month said the two sides “agreed to address each other’s core issues”, signaling a broader discussion about Kashmir and terrorism.

Several clues in the past few months have pointed to the role of the United Arab Emirates. In November, Jaishankar met Bin Zayed and the Crown Prince on a two-day visit to Abu Dhabi, followed by Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi the following month. Almost two weeks before the February 25 announcement, the UAE Foreign Minister made a telephone call with the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan, “where they discussed issues of regional and international interest”. And just a few days earlier, India allowed Khan’s aircraft to fly over Indian airspace as he headed to Sri Lanka for a state visit – a practice that has been suspended since the hostilities of 2019.

After the ceasefire, the United Arab Emirates was one of the few countries to issue a welcome statement to the ceasefire announcement, highlighting the “close historical ties” it has with India and Pakistan and saluting “the efforts made by both countries to reach this agreement.” In Washington, State Department spokesman Ned Price evaded a question about the role the United States played in bringing the two sides together while urging Pakistan to play a constructive role in Afghanistan, Kashmir and elsewhere.

“Obviously, Pakistan has an important role to play when it comes to Afghanistan and what happens on its other border,” Price said on February 25. “So, clearly, we will be paying a lot of attention.”

– With the help of Sylvia Westall and Faseeh Mangi