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Bills coach Sean McDermott can see in retrospect that he should have been more aggressive in his fourth loss in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game. But at the time, he thought he had to play it safe.
McDermott said today that he is concerned about going for the fourth downhill and seeing his team get discouraged if they fail. McDermott said “morale” was a big part of his reason for kicking field goals in the fourth for the goal on the 2-yard line and fourth for 3 on the 8-yard line.
But what would have been really great for the Bills’ morale – and their chances of winning the game – would have been to score touchdowns on those two plays, instead of settling for field goals. The Bills were unlucky against the Chiefs and had to know that they would need some chances to win. McDermott refused to take the risk in the fourth fall.
Analytical research has consistently shown that coaches should try the fourth down more often than they do. McDermott may have thought he was boosting his team’s morale, but he wasn’t giving his team the best chance of winning.