The mutation – called E484K – was found in a coronavirus variant first detected in South Africa two months ago. This variant has already spread to 12 other countries.
Penny Moore, an associate professor at the National Institute of Communicable Diseases in South Africa, called the mutation “alarming.”
“We fear that this mutation could have an impact, and what we don’t know is the extent of the impact,” she said.
E484K is called an “escape mutant” because it has been shown to escape some of the antibodies produced by the vaccine.
“I’m concerned,” said Alex Sigal, a virologist at the Africa Health Research Institute.
Sigal, Moore and other scientists studying the E484K mutation have yet to complete their lab work to see if the vaccine is less effective against this new variant.
Based on what they have seen so far, they say they very much doubt that E484K renders coronavirus vaccines useless. Instead, they think there is a possibility that the mutation – alone or in combination with other mutations – will decrease the vaccine’s effectiveness against the variant.
They also fear that the E484K could be an indication that the new coronavirus is showing its ability to change before our eyes. If this mutation happens in a matter of months, other problematic mutations can occur.
“This virus may be taking its first steps on a very long road towards vaccine resistance,” said Andrew Ward, structural virologist at Scripps Research in La Jolla, California.
“It is the beginning of a long journey,” said Moore. “That’s what really shook me about it. It’s a worrying warning.”
“Mutant escape” is like a naughty child
To understand the potential danger posed by the E484K mutation, imagine a teacher in front of a classroom full of rowdy first graders.
After months of trying to get her class under control, the teacher finally gets it right. She makes them sit in their chairs.
But after a while, one child leaves the class and another takes his place. This new child – this new rascal – does not sit. The teacher’s technique to calm children does not work with him.
The teacher here is the vaccine, and the trickster student is the E484K mutation.
When vaccines used in the United States were tested this summer and fall, they nailed it, practically conquering the virus until submission. But since then, parts of the virus have sometimes been replaced by new bits and sometimes those new bits do not behave.
What they found is that E484K challenges the ability of some antibodies to neutralize the virus.
Although attention is focused on the E484K, scientists are also looking for other mutations in the variant.
The next step is to test these mutations against antibodies created by vaccines – this is the work that scientists are doing now and we hope to announce in the coming weeks.
“Escape mutant” also found in a variant in Brazil
But even if E484K – alone or in combination with other mutations in the variant – turns out to be a problem, the variant is unlikely to escape all antibodies produced by vaccines, given that vaccines produce many antibodies.
The concern is more about what happens when the virus mutates repeatedly.
It is not that the coronavirus is such a fast mutator – in fact, Sigal, one of the South African researchers, called him “a real retard”. The virus is spreading rapidly around the world and, every time it passes from person to person, it has another chance to mutate.
“This creates more opportunities for the virus to learn to be resistant to the vaccine,” said Paul Bieniasz, a virologist at Rockefeller University. “Over time, this will likely decrease the vaccine’s effectiveness, but we will not fall off a cliff tomorrow.”
Such behavior was not expected from a coronavirus, which has always been considered relatively stable, said Sigal.
“This virus has really shown us that it can adapt and escape,” he said. “That just goes back to the first rule of virology: don’t underestimate your virus.”