At the time of the meeting, Ocasio-Cortez had just come out of his impressive victory in the primaries. She had not yet been installed. But in the two years since then, Schumer has thrown his weight on a plan to cancel student loan debts on an executive order. He voted against the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. He said that “nothing is out of the question” when it comes to removing the obstruction. And that is only a fraction of the progressive movements he has made in recent years. It has not yet inoculated him with the possibility of a primary.
“It’s exciting to see how much action Schumer is currently taking, ”said Saikat Chakrabarti, former chief of staff for Ocasio-Cortez. “And I hope that progressives continue to pressure him, threatening a primary potential. “
With Schumer in charge of the Senate, the prospect of a challenge from the left next year will play an important role in drafting legislation that will come out of Washington. This applies regardless of whether Ocasio-Cortez pulls the trigger or not, at least in the coming months.
The two-term congresswoman is seriously considering campaigning for the chair, but so far she is undecided, according to people familiar with her thinking. Several sources said that his decision will depend on how Schumer will exercise power with his new Democratic majority in the coming months: will he be pushed by Mitch McConnell? Or he will work to pass ambitious, progressive legislation favored by the left?
“It depends on what Schumer does,” said Waleed Shahid, communications director for Justice Democrats, the left-wing group that recruited Ocasio-Cortez to run for Congress, referring to a challenge made by her or another progressive candidate. “Schumer will have to explain each of his decisions to one of the country’s most progressive primary constituencies, and if voters think he is capitulating to Mitch McConnell and not organizing his caucus to serve working families, then he will be in trouble. “
So far, Ocasio-Cortez has been careful to avoid giving tips in public.
“The congresswoman represents one of the districts most affected by Covid and that remains her priority and focus,” said spokeswoman Lauren Hitt when asked about a major challenge.
Some progressive organizations closely aligned with Ocasio-Cortez are also taking a wait-and-see approach to the primaries, which they say may come from her or another candidate if she decides to give up on a campaign.
“Whether the left is worth spending a lot of energy on Chuck Schumer primary in 2022, it certainly depends on what he does in 2021,” said Evan Weber, political director for the Sunrise Movement. “We’ve already seen a lot of Schumer’s evolution on a number of issues, and if he continues to evolve and really deliver to the Democrats and can be the leader, we need him to be now, that’s the biggest thing he could do to avoid a lot of effort behind a left primary next year. “
For those on the left flank of the party, the idea of ousting Schumer is attractive in part because he is a member of a Democratic leadership in Congress that they believe has faltered. His track record includes a vote in favor of the Iraq War and support for repealing the Glass-Steagall Act – two issues that continue to burn on the left. His desire for a new approach has also gained more urgency because of the times – progressives recognize that Schumer is not Joe Manchin, the centrist senator from West Virginia, but he is also not FDR, and this is what they think is necessary for end Covid, revive the economy and achieve racial justice.
They will be watching Schumer closely to see if he can deliver a huge stimulus package, pass climate and employment legislation and persuade the resisters in his caucus to remove the obstruction.
Schumer’s allies say his outreach to progressives is part of building relationships that he has always prioritized with constituents, especially in New York, and that his track record is representative of the general shift to the left of the Democratic Party in recent years. They are also irritated by the idea that their leftist movements are exclusively political. The politician who once sold himself as a “democrat of law and order” said last year that “the problems that existed, say in the 1990s, are different than the problems that exist today.”
In his first TV interview since becoming the Senate majority leader – which happened to MSNBC host Rachel Maddow, a nod to the liberal base – Schumer called for transformative legislation.
“America needs bold changes. We need bold, immediate changes, ”he said. “We have Covid, the worst health crisis in 100 years since the Spanish flu pandemic. The worst economic crisis since the New Deal, so we have to act quickly. “
Despite his rhetoric, many progressives remain skeptical and marked by what they saw as an inadequate response to the Democratic recession in the Obama era. A group of prominent left-wing organizations is considering running TV ads this year to pressure it to grow. Other progressive activists are taking a more aggressive stance and are in the early stages of supporting a challenge.
Given her national profile, Ocasio-Cortez’s allies are confident that she would raise an enormous amount of money if she ran for the Senate, perhaps as much as $ 100 million. She raised nearly $ 20 million during her re-election campaign, which she won easily. Many are also optimistic about her chances.
“They think she would win,” said a Democratic House source.
Still, progressives know that she has work to do outside of New York City if she is a candidate. During presidential primaries, her team talked to her about the potential to build her appeal upstate by campaigning for Senator Bernie Sanders if he ended up being competitive in New York, said one person familiar with the talks. (Sanders finally announced that he was endorsing Joe Biden before the state primaries.)
While some in Schumer’s orbit allegedly believe that Ocasio-Cortez is more likely to pursue a campaign for governor or vice-governor, her allies said she is more interested in continuing her legislative career than pursuing an executive career.
If Ocasio-Cortez runs, Schumer will not be caught off guard like Joe Crowley or Eliot Engel, two powerful House Democrats who were expelled by Ocasio-Cortez and now by Rep. Jamaal Bowman, respectively.
In line with political trends in New York, Schumer has signaled that he is not concerned.
“Throughout my career, I do the best job for my constituents and for my country and it always works. I didn’t have a big plan like, ‘I’ll be here in 10 years, here in 20 years.’ I do my job well and then the next thing fits, ”said Schumer to POLITICO.
Schumer also made remarkable moves to reach the left. He has been talking regularly with the base group Indivisible. He wrote articles for the progressive think tank Data for Progress. Prior to Ocasio-Cortez’s rise to Congress, he put Sanders and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren on his leadership team.
Her willingness to work with progressives also extended to the deputy herself. The two politicians pressured the Federal Emergency Management Agency to provide financial assistance to families to help bury their lost loved ones to Covid.
Schumer’s allies claim that a key point of discussion used by the left against Crowley and Engel – that they were DC creatures that were absent in New York – will not stick to him. Schumer is widely regarded as a hard worker, known for his legendary Sunday press conferences in the state, where he focuses on hyperlocal issues. Even many progressives privately admit that he is a constant presence in New York.
“Congressman Bowman’s arguments against Engel were not ideological … but that he is not here,” said Stu Loeser, former communications director at Schumer. “This is not an argument you could make against Chuck Schumer.”
Schumer’s allies also believe that, unlike the Democratic state legislators expelled in 2018 after becoming rebels and co-leading with Republicans, the left cannot claim that he is conservative: He is a liberal in the middle of his caucus that, they point out, voted against NAFTA in the 1990s as a member of the House and has been running on the left-wing electoral line of the Working Families Party for many years.
In fact, some progressives see Schumer as a partner, especially after his recent shift to the left. California deputy Ro Khanna, a former Sanders campaign co-chairman who proposed a $ 100 billion scientific research project with Schumer, said he “has been an ally in bold progressive legislation”.
In some corners on the left, this led to a hesitation to challenge him.
“We really have to ask ourselves who is the impediment for liberal things to happen in the Senate, and it is in my opinion largely the thinness of the majority and the nature of the people who occupy our marginal seats, ”said Sean McElwee, co-founder of Data for Progress. “And the progressive movement as a whole is limited in the media space it can occupy and in the space of people it has.”
Some on the left doubt that Ocasio-Cortez ends up executing in part because, they said, she took no concrete steps to launch a campaign. And there are different schools of thought among their allies about whether Schumer’s rise for the majority leader it makes it more or less likely to face it.
Ocasio-Cortez is not the only candidate whose name is being publicized in progressive circles as a potential challenger for Schumer. Others include first-term representatives Bowman and Mondaire Jones, public attorney Jumaane Williams and state senator Alessandra Biaggi.
A Bowman spokesman said he was not considering a Senate run in 2022. Jones and Williams did not comment.
Biaggi, the granddaughter of a former New York congressman, said that while she is not thinking of running “right now”, “I certainly have to revisit.”
“Unambiguous action needs to happen,” she added. “If it doesn’t, we need to take seriously who is leading us right now.”