Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Gulf countries are expected to sign an agreement on Tuesday to end the diplomatic crisis in the Gulf after 3 ½ years.
The big picture: A coalition led by Saudi Arabia broke ties with Qatar in 2017 and closed its airspace and sea routes for Qatar’s planes and ships, citing Qatar’s alleged support for terrorist groups and relations with Iran. In recent weeks, Saudi Saudi and Qatar are under pressure from the Trump administration to end the dispute.
- The U.S. maintains close ties with Qatar and its rivals, but the Trump administration’s several previous attempts to reconcile the parties have been unsuccessful.
- Both Gulf countries see the signing of the agreement as a gesture to the Trump administration and part of their efforts to “clear the table” to prepare for the next Biden government.
- Jared Kushner mediated between the parties and traveled to Saudi Arabia to attend the signing during this week’s Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit.
The most recently: Before the signing of the agreement, the Chancellor of Kuwait announced that Saudi Arabia and Qatar would open their land, air and sea borders as of Monday night.
Driving the news: Kushner traveled to the GCC summit in Al Ula, Saudi Arabia, with White House envoy Avi Berkowitz and adviser Brian Hook, who helped negotiate the deal.
- The summit will be the first time that the emir of Qatar Tamim Bin Hamad al-Thani has visited Saudi Arabia since the beginning of the crisis in 2017. The leaders of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Oman and Kuwait will also be present.
- The leaders will sign an agreement that includes three confidence-building measures: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain will lift the air and sea blockade to Qatar; Qatar will withdraw all lawsuits against its three Gulf neighbors; and all parties will stop their media campaigns against each other.
Behind the scenes: The agreement was reached in principle during Kushner’s last visit to Saudi Arabia and Qatar a few weeks ago, where he met with Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Sheikh Tamim. Kushner has a close relationship with both leaders.
- American officials say that after meeting with the Saudi Crown Prince, Kushner traveled to Qatar’s capital Doha with Hook, leaving his advisers Berkowitz and Adam Boehler behind in Saudi Arabia. The two mediated conversations between Saudis and Qataris by telephone in real time until a draft agreement was closed.
- In recent weeks, final discussions have been held with the Saudis and those in Qatar to ensure that both sides are committed to the understandings that have been reached, the authorities told me.
- The White House has also lobbied the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt – the three have reservations about the deal, as they view Qatar in a negative light and do not believe the Qataris are sincere.
- The deal almost collapsed on Sunday when a last-minute communication failure created new tensions between the Saudis and those in Qatar, informed sources on the matter told me.
- Kushner and his team were due to leave on Sunday afternoon, but postponed the trip. A source told me that Kushner and his team were forced to negotiate with the Saudis and catharists on Sunday night until a solution was found. They left Washington en route to Saudi Arabia on Monday morning.
What they are saying: A senior diplomat from one of the Gulf countries told me that the deal is a step in the right direction and includes some positive developments – but it does not mark the end of the Gulf gap.
- “Some of the issues have been resolved, but the root of the problem – poor personal relations between leaders and major political differences in Iran, Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood – is still there,” said the diplomat.
The end result: The deal, which will be signed on Tuesday, will be a last-minute achievement for Kushner and the Trump administration before President-elect Joe Biden takes office on January 20.