Offers or no offers? This is the question that teams that need a young quarterback face in the 2021 NFL Draft.
From 2016 to 2018, eight teams negotiated to cast a quarterback in the top 12: Bills (Josh Allen), Jets (Sam Darnold), Rams (Jared Goff), Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes), Cardinals (Josh Rosen), Bears (Mitchell Trubisky), Texans (Deshaun Watson) and Eagles (Carson Wentz).
However, in the last two drafts, there were only two negotiations of any kind made in the upper half of the first round and none of them were for defenders (LB Devin Bush, Steelers, 10th overall selection in 2019; OT Tristan Wirfs, Corsairs, 13th overall selection in 2020).
This drop in initial negotiations could be the start of a long-standing trend, because teams seem reluctant to give up three or four premium choices for a potential customer. It is also possible that non-playoff teams normally interested in moving up were waiting to see if their current quarterback would develop – or maybe they just weren’t interested in giving up main draft capital to Justin Herbert, Daniel Jones and / or Tua Tagovailoa.
Then again, it would not be shocking to see the trend towards non-negotiation ending this year, as there is a long list of teams in need of defenders and a lot to like about the available QBs. For this four-round projection, however, I create the scenario that reflects the 2019 and 2020 drafts. The Jets, Falcons and Panthers place future callers in the first eight selections while standing still, but there are five negotiations in this mock, including one for one quarterback in the middle of the first round.
The compensating free agent choices listed in this exercise are based on my colleague Lance Zierlein’s projections from last April. The official list will be made available by the league in the coming weeks. Four additional choices were added at the end of the third round for franchises that lose minority employees to technician or general manager positions across the league.
Matthew Stafford-Jared Goff’s exchange between Lions and Rams, which included LA sending a 2021 third-round pick to Detroit, is considered in this mock. The deal that moves Carson Wentz from Philadelphia to Indianapolis for a choice of the third round in 2021 and a conditional selection for 2022 is also included. The negotiations will not become official until the start of the new year of the league (March 17).