TAMPA, Florida – NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell and NFL Players Association Executive Director DeMaurice Smith will address reporters on Thursday afternoon before Super Bowl LV – the culmination of what by any measure was a remarkably 2020 season. successful, with no games canceled amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
Behind the scenes, work is already underway between the league, union and clubs to prepare for a new set of challenges and unknowns, with COVID continuing to disrupt business normally in 2021.
Here’s how things are on a number of important issues, based on recent conversations with sources:
The NFL and NFLPA began preliminary negotiations last month over the 2021 salary cap. Some team leaders believe (and certainly hope) that the limit will eventually come close to $ 185 million per club – if not a little more – than than the $ 175 million minimum that the sides agreed to last summer, while preparing for empty stadiums and almost all empty ones.
The league did not provide clubs with their projected annual limit at the late labor seminar Tuesday, nor did it commit to exactly how to spread the impact of an unprecedented multibillion-dollar revenue deficit in 2020 in the coming years. (The limit for each year is based on revenue projections for the following season, as well as a “true-up” of the previous year’s projection. If the sides had not agreed to the $ 175 million floor for 2021 as part of a general package at COVID – related economic issues, spreading this year’s deficit to future years, the limit would have fallen much more than this season’s $ 198.2 million per club.)
Chiefs owner Clark Hunt told reporters this week that the final number cannot be set until “hours before the start of the league year” on March 17. More realistically, teams can find out the number just days before the free agent negotiation period begins on March 15, with the league and union taking as much time as possible to assess the climate and budget for the impact of at least one new media deal, which must be finalized before the NFL makes the expected change to a regular season of 17 games in 2021.
Some teams have found some additional local revenue streams for 2020, although this is not expected to have a major impact on the 2021 cap. And there are still many unknowns.
The biggest unknown in the revenue projection for 2021: will the stadiums be full in September?
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in early December that he anticipated that “it will probably be well in the end of the summer” before the sports stadiums fill up again. And the pace of national vaccination has so far fallen short of initial projections.
When I asked the league’s medical director, Dr. Allen Sills, on Wednesday about Fauci’s statement and the biggest barrier to NFL stadiums being filled this fall, Sills replied “I hope he’s right” and emphasized safety and vaccine effectiveness (which the NFL is promoting by inviting 7,500 vaccinated health workers to the Super Bowl LV), while expressing its personal belief that supplies will increase substantially.
Even if the general population did not achieve collective immunity by September, most teams are likely to find 65,000 vaccinated fans and cardholders willing to buy tickets. The problem with this approach is that it also means telling anyone that they cannot or do not want to be vaccinated that they cannot come, especially if those people have season tickets.
Vaccinations, protocols and changes in rules
The NFL cannot unilaterally require players to be vaccinated once they are eligible, as this would represent a change in working conditions subject to negotiation. Ideally, education should encourage most players to do this on their own, although it is important to note a relatively small percentage of recommendations from medical experts in the league and the union to get flu shots last fall.
Roger Goodell and DeMaurice Smith have said repeatedly that the NFL will not skip the line when it comes to vaccinating players and others. To that end, in a call with agents on January 19, Smith told agents that there is no “optimistic outlook” about widespread vaccination of players in the coming months and “we are planning an off-season that looks a lot like the previous off-season” in terms of organized team activities, mini-fields, etc., becoming totally virtual.
Goodell has already expressed support for some permanent changes to the rules on off-season work, such as more virtual training and a longer ramp-up period at the beginning of the training camp. Some other changes to the year-long rules that were popular with clubs, such as expanded training teams, also have strong support.
All of this is subject to negotiation with the union, as well as the COVID protocols that have evolved throughout the 2020 season, with all teams inserted in the so-called intensive protocols until mid-November, expanding the mask requirements and other restrictions.
It is all somewhat unpredictable until the final limit number is known, but all team officials say the free agency will not be normal. The first wave is likely to be paid off, but then the fund may fall, leading to many one-year deals.
The more the roof falls, the more veterans can be cut, making it a buyers’ market, especially among those teams that prefer to hire free agents from the street in any way to help in the form of choosing the withdrawal.
There is also some feeling that fewer franchise brands will be applied, and certainly less than 14 applied a year ago, as teams may be more reluctant to carry large numbers of a year to their limits in the hope of doing long-term business. deadline before July 15 deadline.
For now, recruitment is in Cleveland from April 29 to May 1. But all the work of the clubs that brought him to him will be abnormal again.
The annual scouting combination as we know it is deactivated. Private exercises, visits to facilities, dinners and cinema sessions with projects are prohibited. Medical examinations are limited. The only personal access teams have to potential customers is at the recently completed all-star games and the next professional days, where each club will be limited to three representatives on campus – or less, if required by state and local regulations that, in some cases can also restrict personal contact with players.
As a year ago, teams spend many hours at FaceTime and probably recruit one or two players without ever shaking their hands.