It took developments entirely under the brand for 2020 to elicit a suggestion in 2021 that previously would have been absurd – Texans should negotiate Deshaun Watson as soon as possible. And for the long-term viability of their franchise, they need it. These developments, you ask? The Texans managed a Watson MVP season, but failed to 4-12 and then completely alienated said quarterback during the process of hiring a new coach. And fired head coach Bill O’Brien left wreckage: a devastating amount of them. These are all the reasons why a Watson exchange should take place. Coming soon.
Draft situation
- Round 3
- Round 4
- Round 4
- Round 5
- Round 6
- Round 6
- Round 6
- Round 7
These are the eight draft selections that Houston holds in the 2021 NFL Draft. Your first choice is set to be No. 67 overall. This is not what a team wants at the beginning of a reconstruction process, in which Texans are today.
Boundary situation
Texans are $ 17.8 million above the projected $ 176 million limit for 2021, according to OverTheCap.com. To make matters worse, they are projected to have the least amount of limit space in 2022, at just $ 43.7 million. For contextual purposes, division rival Colts has $ 155.3 million. Of course, they could (see: need to) get some money off the top by releasing expensive veterans, especially the franchise legend JJ Watt. Only his maximum limit would almost make Houston go back to … having no money to spend on a free agency in 2021, as his maximum limit of $ 17.5 million would be off the books if he were fired.
Other possible limit victims include:
Clean up some of those names, so you’re (middle) in business, Texans. Well, except for the fact that the team would be without some of its best and most established players.
And while money talks, let’s not forget that each free agent witnessed everything that happened at the beginning of the off-season in relation to the Texan organization. If it’s apparently the most undesirable head coach job in the NFL, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, is probably one of the least desired free agent destinations as well.
The Watson value and team building logistics
Even if Texans leave this hole without looking completely tarnished, they will likely have to accept that they will be one of the worst teams in football again in 2021, in Watson’s 26-year season. And even though your heroism as a defender may lead the club to a few more last-minute wins than last season, are the playoffs realistic? Probably not. The Super Bowl certainly wouldn’t be.
Furthermore, Watson’s value will almost certainly never be greater than in this off-season. He completed 70.2% of his passes, led the league in passing yards with 4,823 and yards per attempt with 8.9. In his third full season as a starter – he lost nine games due to an injury in his debut season – Watson established a new high in the touchdown percentage career (6.1%) and a low in the interception rate career (1, 3%).
Watson arrived absolutely as an elite NFL quarterback. Does this mean that he will continue to break his own records each season? No. And chances are that in 2021, in another bad team – potentially worse – of Texans, their production will return to average (probably only slightly). When that happens, a 26-year-old Watson will not be as valuable in the commercial market as it is right now.
Also, what will be Watson’s level of frustration in 2021 if he is playing again – he will be – and Houston limps to 0-4, then 2-6 and 3-8? The more Watson clearly wants to leave, less influence the Texans have when they sit at the table of trade negotiations.
In addition, the normal distribution of choices in the draft returns in 2022 – along with an extra fourth and seventh – but how far has the Watson-Texans relationship been up to then? Even if the choices for the first and second rounds are quality selections in 2022, they are unlikely to become key team players in 2023 or 2024. Watson would be approaching 30.
There would probably be suitors as well as substitutes
From the Dolphins – with two first and two seconds in the draft of 2021 together with Tua Tagovailoa – to the Jets – pair of first in 2021 and 2022 – there are probably about 25 other teams that would be really interested in Watson. The lack of suitors would not be a problem and could further raise the price of Watson.
And while Watson is a sure thing – Texans need to understand that more superb quarterbacks will enter the NFL through the draft. See the wave of young passersby taking over the league today. If Houston could guarantee number 2 (Jets) or number 3 in the overall (Dolphins), they would be facing Justin Fields or Zach Wilson. And those players would be astronomically cheaper than Watson – their cap is set to skyrocket to $ 40.4 million in 2021 and $ 42.4 million in 2022.
Conclusion
This suggestion is not normal. But Texans are the furthest from a normal reconstruction process. And, of course, maybe in a year or two, they could move Watson and get a considerable return. But it is highly unlikely that they will be able to get as much for him as they do now, and waiting to make the change would simply delay the true Houston’s reconstruction process began.
So whoever’s running the Texans needs to swallow their pride and negotiate Watson now.