When it comes to negotiating with Nolan Arenado, think of Giancarlo Stanton.
The Rockies reunited with the Cardinals on how to deal with the third baseman, as Ken Rosenthal first reported on The Athletic.
There are so many obstacles to this type of business being completed, compounded by the financial uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. This led, among other things, to NL Central being in an upcoming talent pool for the group, in which players like Josh Bell, Yu Darvish, Raisel Iglesias, Jon Lester, Joe Musgrove, Jose Quintana, Kyle Schwarber, Jameson Taillon and probably in at some point, Trevor Bauer left. On Thursday, the cardinals reached an agreement to keep Adam Wainwright on a $ 8 million year-long pact. It doesn’t seem like much. But at the time, it was four times more than the rest of the combined division had spent on a free agency before Joc Pederson reached an agreement with the Cubs on Friday for a year and about $ 5 million.
So St. Louis can decide that if the rest of the division is backing down, why take the long-term risk in Arenado? The division could be won without it.
But let’s pretend that we are at a time when, you know, the teams really care about improving. In this scenario, there is a scheme for this type of trade and the Cardinals and Arenado’s agent know it.
Joel Wolfe is the agent for Arenado and Stanton. After the 2017 season, the Cardinals reached an agreement with the Marlins for Stanton, who invoked their no-trade clause. Stanton’s preference was to get to his hometown, Dodgers, but he was good with the Yankees. Arenado would also love to get to his hometown, Dodgers, but he would be fine with the Cardinals.
Stanton signed a 13-year, $ 325 million contract with the team that recruited him in the second round (Marlins). Arenado signed an eight-year, $ 260 million contract with the team that drafted him in the second round (Rockies). Both tied in the long term with the franchise, promising they would spend to beat the now well-paid stars. But they were both experienced enough to know that this was not the organization’s story. Therefore, neither was surprised when this did not happen. Players could not refuse this type of guaranteed money, however, despite the franchise’s history. So these deals looked like an NBA situation where the star takes the guaranteed money and then forces him out of town when he gets frustrated with the organization (did you notice James Harden in Brooklyn, for example?).
Stanton was 10 years old and $ 295 million left. The Marlins were desperate to clean as much of their wages as possible. So they agreed to take over the remaining two years at $ 22 million at Starlin Castro, eat $ 30 million if Stanton didn’t invoke his opt-out after the 2020 campaign and accept two lottery ticket possibilities far from the big ones.
In all, the Yankees saved $ 52 million. The equivalent would be the Cardinals saving about $ 35 million over the six years, with $ 199 million remaining in Arenado. Obviously, this is just a guide. Stanton was coming out of an MVP season, but he had less defensive value and 10 years to go. Arenado will play at 30 in 2021, but comes from his worst season with a shoulder injury. However, he remains one of the best third defensive base of all time and 2015-19 finished in the top eight for the NL MVP.
The Cardinals have many contracts similar to those of Castro to compensate. Miles Mikolas (three years at $ 47.25 million), Matt Carpenter (one year, $ 20.5 million) and Dexter Fowler (one year $ 14.5 million) all have no-trade clauses that they would have to resign. Carlos Martinez (one year $ 12 million) and Andrew Miller (one year, $ 12 million) would not, but would receive an award bonus of $ 1 million. Either of these individually or together would provide compensation for Arenado.
The Rockies, in theory, could do what the Red Sox just did, taking over most of Adam Ottavino’s contract to gain access to the Frank German prospectus. Colorado can accept more contracts back or eat more dollars to gain access to better potential customers. For example, Cardinals can build a negotiation around one of the best third-base prospects in the game, coincidentally also with the first name Nolan – Nolan Gorman.
Arenado may choose to leave after the 2021 season, but would probably refuse to facilitate trade. In that case, the Rockies may agree to eat part of the deal – as with Stanton – if the opt-out is not triggered.