The Biden government is reflecting on America’s role in the ongoing conflict in Syria while the US is trying to break out of the wars in the Middle East, but Vladimir Putin’s top diplomat is already busy on the ground, trying to gain support for a Syrian approach that could establish Russia as an intermediary for security and power in the region.
The new US government has yet to say how it plans to deal with Syria, which is now fragmented into half a dozen military personnel – including US soldiers – due to a war that killed and displaced millions. The conflict includes al Qaeda affiliates, Islamic State forces and other jihadist groups eager to use Syria as a base.
Russia and Iran intervened to prevent the collapse of Syrian President Bashar Assad, which exerted chemical attacks, barrel bombs and starvation to crush what started as a peaceful revolt. The conflict has just entered its 11th year.
Dealing with the Syrian war will test the Biden government’s determination to focus on Asia rather than the Middle East. If the United States decreases its presence, Russia and other hostile US rivals are ready to intervene and increase their stature and regional resources.
Hence Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov Tour in the Middle East this month.
Lavrov stood still as the foreign minister of a Gulf state generally Washington’s friend, the United Arab Emirates, delivered a message in line with Moscow’s position: US sanctions on the Russian-backed regime in Syria were blocking international efforts to rebuild Syria. Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan said it was time to welcome Syria back to the heart of Arab nations.
In other words, Russia’s message is “the war in Syria is over, Assad won, Assad will be in power as long as he breathes oxygen,” said Frederic Hof, who served as a US adviser in Syria and sent to the Obama administration.
Hof said there was an undeclared part of the message: Russia plans to be present while “Syria was built from the ashes”, taking advantage of any incoming international reconstruction resources and positioning itself as the broker to manage the security threats that the Syria represents for the region.
Hof and James F. Jeffrey, a career diplomat under the Republican and Democratic administrations who served as President Donald Trump’s envoy to Syria, argue for the United States to continue a significant presence in the country, citing Russia’s ambitions.
“If this is the future of security in the Middle East, we are all in trouble,” warns Jeffrey. “This is what Putin and Lavrov are pushing for.”
The Biden government is considering whether to consider Syria as one of America’s most important national security problems.
It has yet to show signs of doing so. Notably, where President Joe Biden has defined some other Middle East problems as priorities – including the Yemen war and Iran’s nuclear program, to which Biden has appointed envoys – he and his officials have said and done little publicly about Syria.
In Congress, Syria is at the center of a debate in Congress over the reduction or end of the authorities given to presidents to conduct military attacks after the 9/11 attacks.
It was the Syrian war that sparked this debate, when President Barack Obama first considered military attacks there, said Representative Joaquin Castro, a Democrat from Texas and a member of the House’s Foreign Affairs Committee. “Congress has been omitted in some of the most important decisions that a country can make.”
One of Biden’s few public mentions about Syria since taking office came last week, when he listed it among the international problems that the UN Security Council should do more of.
Marking the 10th anniversary of the start of the conflict in Syria last week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a statement with European counterparts emphasized the need for humanitarian aid for Syrian civilians and responsibility for the Assad regime.
US troops are helping to protect an opposition enclave in northeastern Syria, in an area that includes oil and natural gas. During Biden’s campaign last year, Blinken framed the military role as a “point of influence” in negotiations on Syria’s international treatment, rather than a continuing force.
Spokesmen for the National Security Council and the State Department refused to answer specific questions about Biden’s policy on Syria, including whether the government sees the conflict in Syria as a major threat to national security or plans to nominate one. Sent.
Biden follows Obama and Trump in an attempt to downplay the United States’ military role in the Middle East and shift the focus of U.S. foreign policy to Asia, where China has been increasingly aggressive.
But the conflicts in the Middle East and the United States’ own strategic schemes have a way of pulling Americans back. Last month Biden became the sixth consecutive US president to bomb a target in the Middle East, targeting an Iranian allied militia in Syria that had attacked Americans and allies in neighboring Iraq.
Some current and former American diplomats in the Middle East have argued that Syria is not a major threat to the security of the United States.
Robert S. Ford, Obama’s ambassador to Syria with years of diplomatic experience in the region, concluded in an article by the Foreign Ministry last year that Washington should withdraw its troops from northeastern Syria, see to it that Russia and others deal with the fighting jihadists and applied the United States money to help war refugees.
But Hof and Jeffrey, two others who had negotiated with Syria in previous administrations, argue against the withdrawal.
“If I were an ISIS leader now desperately trying to organize an insurgency to return” in Syria, “I would pray that this advice would be followed,” said Hof. For the Islamic State group, “if you can have the regime as enemies ( Syrian), the Iranians and the Russians, there is nothing better than that ”.
A test of the Biden government’s intentions is approaching, as Russia seeks to use its position on the UN Security Council to close a humanitarian aid route to part of Syria that is not under the control of the Russian-backed Syrian government, notes Mona Yacoubian, senior adviser to Syria. Think Tank from the US Institute for Peace.
Maintaining or strengthening the US footprint in Syria will be important, said Yacoubian – not only as a lever in political negotiations, but also to define the rules of the game for Russia’s presence in the Middle East. And other immediate goals for the international community remain: to make life “more manageable and less miserable for Syrians,” she said.