It is unclear whether Trump saw the report.
The results are based on an analysis of exit polls in 10 states. Five of them – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – are states that Trump lost after beating them in 2016. The other five – Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas – are states that Trump won in both. elections.
The report focuses on a series of demographic data where Trump suffered decisive reversals in 2020, including among elderly white people, the same group that helped propel him into the White House. The autopsy says that Trump saw “the greatest erosion with white voters, mainly white men”, and that he “lost ground with almost all age groups”. In the five states that moved to Biden, Trump’s biggest drop was among voters aged 18-29 and 65 and over.
Suburban people – who fled Trump after 2016 – also played an important role. The report says that the former president has suffered a “double-digit erosion” with “educated White College voters in all sectors”.
The election image presented in the report is widely shared by political professionals from both parties, if not by Trump and his legions of supporters. Trump never offered Biden a concession and, until his last days in office, he clung to the unmasked idea that the election had been stolen.
Fabrizio declined to comment on the autopsy. A Trump spokesman did not respond to a request for comment.
Trump’s personal behavior, the autopsy makes clear, contributed to his defeat. “Biden had a clear advantage over POTUS because he was seen as honest and trustworthy,” writes Fabrizio.
Trump’s response to the pandemic was also critical. The autopsy says that coronavirus was the main problem among voters and that Biden won over those voters by a margin of almost 3 to 1. Most registered disapproval of Trump’s handling of the virus.
Most voters said they prioritized combating the coronavirus rather than reopening the economy, even with the president firmly emphasizing the latter. And about 75 percent of voters – most of whom were in favor of Biden – said they favored public mandates for wearing masks.
The report also raises indirect questions about the re-election campaign’s decision to stop TV advertising during the summer and save resources until the fall. According to the results, almost 9 out of 10 voters had already decided who to support until the last month of the dispute.
Fabrizio is not the only adviser to Trump who has submitted an autopsy since November 3. John McLaughlin, another Trump researcher, published a report on the conservative Newsmax website a week after the election.
Meanwhile, advisers to former Vice President Mike Pence brought in several researchers to inform him of his conclusions after the election, according to a person familiar with the discussions. Among the findings was that Trump was winning during the final weeks of the race and that his rallies helped propel Republicans into the House and Senate contests. But the polls also made it clear that while there was substantial support for Trump’s policies, there was widespread exhaustion with the president.
Within Trump’s inner circle, Fabrizio has long championed the belief that Trump needed to prioritize the pandemic to win re-election. Last summer, he wrote a 79-page memo arguing that Trump needed to focus on dealing with the pandemic instead of reopening the economy and recommending, among other things, that he should have encouraged people to wear masks instead of mocking practice.