Some Republicans across the country are changing their party records after the Capitol insurrection on January 6.
In Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Florida – states that made some of their data available to the public – voters were leaving the Republican Party.
“It is definitely a trend and we see it soon after – on the 8th or 9th – just after the 6th insurrection,” Consuelo Kelly, communications director for the Broward County Electoral Supervisor, told ABC News on Saturday about the changes. in Florida.
The numbers are minuscule in the grand scheme of things – a few thousand voters here or there don’t make much of a difference in the Republican Party voter base across the country. And some Democrats have also changed their party affiliations, albeit at a lower rate. But the first numbers are raising eyebrows.
Dr. Michael McDonald, a professor of political science at the University of Florida who studies voting and elections, told ABC News that such changes soon after a federal election are out of the ordinary.
“It is very unusual for people to change or exchange their party records without any incentive to do so,” he said.
“The typical reason people change their registration is that there is a primary approach and that primary is in a state of party registration, where you have to be registered with a party or as an independent. So before an election, you will see people – registration to participate in the primaries in states that have party registration, “added McDonald. “It is not a typical activity for people to call and say, ‘I want to be registered as a Democrat, Republican, independent or non-partisan.’ This is a very unusual thing to be happening and reports that we are receiving from election officials – it seems like one thing. “
In North Carolina, just over 6,000 Republicans changed their registration to an unaffiliated January 6-19, with about 3,600 of the state’s nearly 9 million registered voters making the change a week after the Capitol riot, according to data from the state Electoral Board. About 530 ex-Republicans changed their membership to Democrats and approximately 1,730 Democrats changed or removed their party membership. About 510 of these former Democrats moved to the Republican Party, while approximately 1,210 removed their party affiliation.
Throughout December, while Republicans in Congress continued to try to overturn the election results to prevent President Joe Biden from taking office, just over 1,900 Republicans changed their registration to non-affiliates and about 2,000 Democrats did. the same.
After the 2016 election, the number of Republicans in North Carolina who changed their membership in the same period was just under 450.
In Arizona, a state that has become increasingly blue in recent election cycles, some 7,500 voters have moved their Republican Party records to other parties or non-affiliates since January 6, according to data provided to ABC News by the cabinet. of the Secretary of State on Thursday. Of those, about 5,300 of the more than 1.5 million Republicans registered in the state have removed a designated part of their registration.
President Joe Biden beat Arizona by about 10,000 votes, but in the two months after the election and before the insurrection, only about 4,500 Republicans changed their records.
Among Democrats, just over 1,600 voters have changed or withdrawn their party registration since January 6. Arizona did not track this data after the 2016 election, according to Solis. Like many other states, the office does not explicitly track this data.
Dr. Michael Hanmer, professor of voting and participation at the University of Maryland, told ABC News that most of the changes appear to be concentrated among Republicans.
“The imbalance is something that I find interesting to think about, given that it is now proven, it appears mainly by Republicans reacting to the January 6 events,” said Hanmer. “But in the future, I think there was already this tendency that people were dissatisfied with both parties to a great extent. And that can accelerate that,” he said of the attack on the United States Capitol.
Some populated areas of Florida are showing similar signs.
In Miami-Dade, the state’s largest county and home to an important group of Latin voters, some 1,600 Republicans have changed their party affiliations since January 6, approximately 1,120 of them removing a party affiliation and 330 of them moving to independents, according to data provided by the county electoral council on Friday. Among Democrats, the total number of exchanges was just under 450 – about 280 of them removing their party affiliation. In the same period of 2016, about 300 Republicans changed their registration during the month of January and about 500 Democrats did the same.
From November 4 to January 6, approximately 630 county Republicans left the party, while nearly 300 changed their registration to Democrat. In the same period, about 950 Democrats left the party, while about 670 changed to Republicans and 120 to independents.
This trend is also visible in Broward County, where almost 1,720 Republicans have changed their membership and most of them – 1,108 – have changed to have no party affiliation. There were just over 350 who switched to independent status and about 250 went to the Democratic Party. Democrats had about 660 changes in the same period, with more than 430 moving to no party affiliation and 145 joining the Republican Party. Democrats won some voters who were not party members too, with more than 280 of the 584 changes going to the blue and about 180 joining the Republican Party.
The Florida Electoral Department was unable to provide further details on state trends among the state’s more than 14.5 million voters.
In Pennsylvania, the secretary of state does not track these numbers right after a big election, according to a spokesman. But polls from some Associated Press counties are showing the same trend at that level. In Cumberland County, the AP reported earlier this month that 192 people had changed their party record since the January 6 riot. Only 13 switched to the Republican Party – the other 179 switched to Democrat, independent or third. The numbers are minuscule compared to the 3.5 million Republicans registered in Pennsylvania.
An ABC News / Washington Post poll, conducted Jan. 10-13, found that 69% of Americans, by a wide margin, said Republican officials should lead the party in a different direction, rather than following Trump’s leadership. . But only among Republicans, 60% want to continue to follow Trump – less than in the past, but still at the risk of a Trump / no Trump schism within the party. A similar question asked in 2018 found that 83% of Republicans at the time felt the same way.
A recent Quinnipiac poll found similar results: 77% say they would like to see the Republican Party leave Trump as soon as he leaves office, including 53% of Republicans and Republican-oriented independents.
McDonald said he suspects more changes will come, although the events of the past few weeks may be just a small problem in terms of people changing registrations.
“It is probably the tip of the iceberg among Republicans, because other people may be upset about what is going on, but they are not yet willing to waste time changing the party’s record,” he said. “From the great arc of history, we think well that it is probably what will happen here is that it is only temporary. As soon as the fever subsides, we’ll be back to business as usual. This is a perspective that I will take on myself. The other perspective is that this is something more lasting – durable – that what we are witnessing here is more of a realignment. “