The Chicago Cubs surprised a lot of people – nothing more than fans – this morning by agreeing to a real cost deal with outfielder Joc Pederson.
And following this news, Dave Kaplan releases a significant report:
Sources confirmed that Tom Ricketts recently increased the Cubs player’s payroll to 2021. This allowed Jed Hoyer some flexibility to reshape his roster into a division that the Cubs deemed winable. @kapjhood @NBCSChicago @NBCSCubs
– David Kaplan (@thekapman) January 29, 2021
So many reactions …
1.) This is obviously something that we all just want to believe is true, so we have to take a break before we start to get happy and crazy. Your desire to believe in something can distort your reaction to reports that it is true.
2.) NOW, yes, I believe in this report. On the one hand, Joc Pederson’s signature is a big data point that we all admit was kind of hard to track, without an increase in budget. It’s not like it’s a big money subscription, but everything indicated that there simply wasn’t any money for 2021 now. Therefore, the addition of US $ 7 million to the final result is quite significant.
3.) On the other hand, we always said that the Cubs budget would be a variety, and they would try to finalize it as soon as possible based on projections of what the recipes would look like in 2021. The problem has always been the pandemic and the launch of the vaccine. With these situations improving, it is possible that the Cubs have developed sufficient confidence in Tier X budget projections to release another portion of dollars for Jed Hoyer. In fact, I suspect that is exactly what happened.
4.) Note that the Cubs are still looking at all the low purchase pitch options, even after launching additional dollars, and that still makes sense. As with Pederson’s signature, you’re just looking to add value wherever you can. And in a year when we know that Cubs have SO MANY entries to cover, it will still make sense to load up on potential weapons when the market is so full of them.
5.) Likewise, I would not assume that this news means that Cubs can suddenly start chasing the best pitchers left on the market. An “increase” in dollars available to create “some” flexibility for Hoyer is not the same as a monstrous increase in payroll. The times, I suspect, are still “tight”.
6.) Related to the related, I would also not assume that this news means that there will be no further negotiations. The objective of the Cubs for this year is to compete, yes, and to hire short-term players when the free agent market offers these options is consistent with that objective. But their goal is also to add long-term value through potential acquisitions, and that means that the exchange of value-controlled players is still on the table – perhaps even more so now that Cubs have money available to spend at a free agency to compensate the losses and also have the money available to include in the negotiations to increase the return of the potential customer.
And a big-market club like Cubs, facing talent risks after this season, MAY HAVE BOTH WAYS. You can spend money to add in a depressed / deep market and also exchange parts for long-term value. The key to take it out? Have some money available. So, this is good.
– Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) January 29, 2021
7.) Another thing to keep in mind here is that the off season is almost over. Many of the best free agents are signed up. Even though Cubs can now go after big league parts in big league deals, what are we looking at? Maybe a guy like Kolten Wong on second base? Maybe a big deal for a reliever, and maybe a little bit of money that is needed to sign a recovery initial or two? There just aren’t that many faces of significant impact on the market right now.
In any case, I don’t want to be too severe in this regard. This is good news. Maybe it shouldn’t have taken that long, and maybe the payroll is still miles below last year and the year before. But this is SOME flexibility, as Kaplan reports, and it matters whether Hoyer uses it wisely to build in the short and long term.