15:12 PST 1/19/2021
in
Pamela McClintock
Like last year, James Bond’s photo ‘No Time to Die’ could lead to a series of studio delays while insiders plan how long it will take for the box office to be revived.
Hollywood executives responsible for the launch schedule could not imagine that they would face another major migration in 2021, as the COVID-19 crisis continued. The feeling of déjà vu is demoralizing as they seek to reorganize their spring and early summer slates.
Almost a year ago, MGM surprised its rivals by pushing the photo of James Bond No time to die from April to November. Soon, however, all the studios followed suit before most cinemas closed on March 20 in Hollywood, in the United States, and movie owners assumed that trips to the cinema would resume in the fall of 2020. It was not for to be. In case of No time to die, was later postponed to April 2, but not even that date will remain, say sources The Hollywood Reporter.
The only question that remains is whether MGM will relocate the 007 support for October, December or November. The studio declined to comment. “I think everything is substantive between now and Top Gun: Maverick in early July it will move. It’s a mess, ”predicts a veteran studio executive.
This group of films includes those from Paramount A peaceful place, part II (April 23), Disney’s Black Widow (May 7) and Universal Fast and furious installment F9 (May 28), which were originally supposed to be released in 2020. There’s also Sony’s Poison sequel, which is due to open on June 25, a week before Top Gun and Universal Minions: the rise of Gru unfold in theaters July 2 before the Fourth of July hall.
During the pandemic, Universal decided to launch its films early on premium VOD to keep the product flowing, but experts say theaters need to be opened worldwide for films like F9 and minions.
“So that no one thought that the transition from 2020 to 2021 would magically solve the problems that have perplexed the industry in the past 12 months, the reality is that many of the same market forces are still at stake and will continue to inform strategists about studio decisions and creative in the same way, ”says Paul Dergarabedian of Comscore. “That said, there is hope for a recovery for the cinema business on the horizon, but it is clear that the future is in constant flux.”
Eric Handler, from MKM Partners, adds: “The way I am thinking about the year, the first quarter will drop by up to 90%” Recent titles that have escaped from January to March include Sony Morbius and Warner Bros. ‘ The Many Saints of Newarkfrom the studio Sopranos prequela.
A studio with a different approach is Warners, which recently changed Legendary’s place Godzilla vs. Kong from May 21 to March 26. That’s probably because the studio wants to keep the momentum going for its new initiative to debut its 2021 slate directly on HBO Max and in theaters that are open.
Handler believes that the second quarter of 2020 will bring some improvements, but revenue will still be 30 to 40 percent of normal compared to a three-year average (2016-19). He notes: “It depends on how quickly we reach the peak of infections. If they can immunize a million people a day, things will start to accelerate. ”
This story first appeared in the January 20 issue of The Hollywood Reporter. Click here to subscribe.