| Heat probabilities | +1 |
| Warrior odds | -1 |
| Money line | -100 / -120 |
| Up down | 225.5 |
| Time | 10 pm eastern time |
| TV | ESPN |
The Miami Heat is continuing its journey to the West conference in the Bay Area, after a surprising defeat to the Clippers on Monday, who were without Kawhi and Paul George.
The Heat opened Wednesday’s game as a favorite, but has since become a weak dog against the Golden State Warriors, which seeks to secure its second consecutive victory after a 31-point victory over the Cavaliers on Monday.
With such a tight spread in this game, I will explain why I look at the total in this match.
Miami heat
The Heat will again be without Goran Dragic, as he deals with a sprained ankle and Gabe Vincent is listed as likely, as they seem to be back on track and getting into the playoffs image. Despite its 11-16 record, the Heat has gone 5-5 in the last 10 games and its advanced statistics are starting to balance as they regain their players, meaning Jimmy Butler lost a long time to start the season .
Miami has been battling the onslaught all season and is ranked 25th in points for 100 possessions on the season’s court. However, their defense kept them in the games – they are the 13th defense of the season ranking, but they occupy the sixth position in the last two weeks, by Cleaning the Glass.
The problem with that is the teams that have played in the past two weeks. In addition to Jazz, they played the Clippers without Kawhi and Paul George (and still lost), the Rockets, the Knicks (twice) and the Wizards (twice).
This is in line with the expected allowed eFG%. It is not that they are allowing worse looks to opponents, their opponents simply were not able to capitalize on those looks at a higher rate. The chance that they give up with the second highest frequency in the league? All 3 points in general, but corner three.
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Golden State Warriors
The Warriors listed Draymond Green in the injury report in the last few games with a knee injury, so keep an eye on his status with our Labs Insiders tool. Green is a critical part of this Warriors team and with James Wiseman wasting a lot of time due to a wrist injury, he played more minutes as a central point.
In the last eight games, he averaged 6.0 points, 7.6 rebounds and 11.6 assists! Considering that Miami gives up 25.1 assists per game (19th in the league), Green should have plenty of opportunities to earn coins.
I have been playing his auxiliary support in recent games after following my colleague (and resident support guy), Brandon Anderson, and he even discussed Green’s passage before the Warriors game on Monday.
Green passes result in the highest percentage of pitches for the Warriors, 54.4% of the ground and 43.3% of the 3, according to NBA Advanced Statistics. Your court vision will be critical in this confrontation, as the Warriors seek to take advantage of Miami’s defense.
Choice of heat warriors
The key to this confrontation is the Warrior’s attack. Despite having only the 20th best Offensive Rating of the season, they are in 10th place in the last two weeks and scoring six more points for every 100 possessions in this period.
Although they played against teams that are not very good defensively (other than San Antonio), they had the opportunity to click on the attack and keep pace with what I consider an overrated Miami defense.
When Heat was listed as a favorite this season, they are only 9-8 straight, but only 5-11-1 against the spread. As a domestic dog, the Warriors are 4-4 straight and ATS. Considering that this is the opening with a spread of 1 point, while I tilt Warriors, as I mentioned at the top, I am looking for value in total.
Both teams have been profitable in betting. Miami has 15-12-1 for the under, while the Warriors is 15-12-1 for the under. When two under teams play, it is profitable to bet on the over.
This is the case here, and I hope to see some points in this confrontation; Golden State plays the second fastest pace in the league and I think this Miami defense is a little overrated. I bet that at 223.5 when it opened, but the number soared across the market. Still, I like the over until 226.
To choose: More than 225.5 (up to 226)