Alexey Navalny speaks via video link to a Moscow regional court on 28 January.
Photographer: Alexander Nemenov / AFP / Getty Images
Photographer: Alexander Nemenov / AFP / Getty Images
The arrested opposition leader, Alexey Navalny, is stepping up his battle against President Vladimir Putin, calling for new mass protests this weekend, as the Russian leader’s popularity plummets.
Putin’s confidence index fell to 53%, according to a survey conducted by the Public Opinion Foundation from 22 to 24 January, during the day when tens of thousands of Russians gathered in cities across the country demanding the release of Navalny. That was the lowest level that the Foundation, which often works for the Kremlin, has reported since it started asking the question that way in 2013, according to its website.
“You cannot frighten the tens of millions of people who have been robbed by the authorities,” Navalny told a court in the Moscow region on Thursday via a video link to the prison where he is currently held for 30 days. “I am happy to see that more and more people see that the law and the truth are on our side and that we are the majority”.
Authorities are already warning against participating in Sunday’s protests and most of Navalny’s aides who were not yet in prison were arrested this week, facing a range of criminal charges. Still, they are concerned about the scale of the demonstrations and looking for ways to cool the popular discontent that has been simmering amid falling income and restrictions on coronavirus, said three people close to the government.
Crowds gather in support of Alexey Navalny during a demonstration in Moscow on 23 January.
Photographer: Andrey Rudakov / Bloomberg
‘An avalanche’
“Navalny set off an avalanche,” said Evgeny Gontmakher, a prominent Russian economist. “People were already dissatisfied with the drop in their income and the pandemic.”
The 68-year-old Russian leader has been in power for more than two decades, the longest government since Soviet dictator Josef Stalin. In July, Putin made constitutional changes that would allow him to remain president until 2036. His support last year fell to a record low amid the Covid-19 blockade, but recovered somewhat in November, according to the Levada Center. He has survived several previous waves of anti-Kremlin protests, increasing restrictions on public demonstrations.
Thinner wallets
Russians’ income has fallen again since Covid-19 hit
Source: Russian Federal Statistics Service
Navalny, 44, was arrested on January 17 on his return home from Germany, where he recovered from a near-fatal nervous agent poisoning that he and the West attributed to Putin’s secret service. His arrest sparked Western appeals for his immediate release, including an appeal this week in a phone call from US President Joe Biden.
Alexei Navalny is escorted out of a police station in Khimki, just outside Moscow, on 18 January.
Photographer: Alexander Nemenov / AFP / Getty Images
After years of publicly ignoring the anti-graft activist, the Kremlin began to try to refute its claims. Earlier this week, Putin denounced the protests as “dangerous” and rejected the allegations in a video released by Navalny that he owns a giant $ 1.3 billion palace on the Black Sea. The clip has over 100 million views.
Putin, poison and the importance of Alexey Navalny: QuickTake
On Wednesday night, the police detained Navalny’s brother Oleg and two allies, Lyubov Sobol and Anastasia Vasilyeva, for 48 hours, on suspicion of violating anti-Covid 19 restrictions. On Friday, prosecutors asked for a Moscow court that placed them under house arrest.
They also opened a criminal case in absentia against one of the main aides to the opposition leader, Leonid Volkov, claiming that he encouraged minors to participate in the unsanctioned protests. Volkov, who is now outside Russia, has denied the charges. The opposition leader himself is accused of violating probation under suspended sentence while recovering from the August attack in Germany. He faces a three and a half year prison sentence at a February 2 hearing.
Feature fading?
Putin’s popularity fell from its peak
Source: Levada Center
The government’s harsh response reflects concerns that the demonstrations are far more widespread than in the past, said Natalia Zubarevich, head of regional studies at the Independent Institute of Social Policy in Moscow. Still, she expects them to disappear like the previous ones. “They will vent and get tired of it,” she said.
Pavel Malyi, a prominent investment banker who was among the protesters in Moscow a week ago, said that a sense of injustice is galvanizing people. “Basic rights need to be respected,” he said. “I want to be able to look my kids in the eye.”
The riot police detain a supporter of Alexey Navalny during a demonstration in Moscow on 23 January.
Photographer: Andrey Rudakov / Bloomberg
The challenge presented by Navalny fueled tensions within the political elite. While a person close to the Kremlin said the authorities must act to reduce social tensions, another official said there was pressure for a hard line that would only worsen dissatisfaction and increase Navalny’s appeal.
Research commissioned by the Kremlin shows growing recognition and support for Navalny, especially among young people, according to a person familiar with the numbers, which are not public.
Navalny’s ally Volkov said Thursday’s decision to keep him in prison shows that opponents of Putin have no choice but to continue to demonstrate. “The street has to give the final say, there is no other way,” he said on Twitter.
– With the help of Ilya Arkhipov, Irina Reznik, Anna Andrianova and Jake Rudnitsky