The deal is going on, and names are available. The Chicago Cubs are swapping Yu Darvish and Victor Caratini for the San Diego Padres for a big potential package and pitcher Zach Davies.
It’s not the package you were thinking about when these rumors started this morning:
Sources confirm for @dennistlin, @PJ_Mooney and I that the whole deal is Yu Darvish and Victor Caratini going to the Fathers and Cubs receiving Zach Davies and the candidates Reginald Preciado, Owen Caissie, Yeison Santana, Ismael Mena
– Sahadev Sharma (@sahadevsharma) December 29, 2020
Davies’ inclusion is more about salary and the desire to move a pitcher from one team to another, so although I don’t ignoring he, he doesn’t get much focus in terms of what the trade was “for”.
Make no mistake about the nature of trade: it is pure “sale” trade. It is moving a player with a substantial contract into a deal to get the highest possible value from a very young prospect (while getting rid of that contract). In that regard, I simply did not wait for the Cubs before a year that could be won in 2021, and when you could also try to reset your list to 2022 and beyond. This does not mean that the Cubs will not aim to do this in other ways – I don’t think they’ll be tanks for years, folks – but I really thought that any return on a Darvish deal would be clearly impactful in 2022. Absent From others negotiations involving these potential customers, who definitely will not happen. These are very, very long-term pieces.
You can see continuous updates here as the day progresses. Strange ride and nothing fun. Small details about the perspectives as a starting point. The short version is that Preciado is a 17 year old shortstop and one of the main IFA signings in 2019, Caissie is an 18 year old outfielder who was the Padres’ second round this year, Santana is a 19 year old shortstop who was Top 10 in the loaded system of the Fathers, and Mena is a 17-year-old field player who was a major player in the IFA in 2019.
These are good potential customers on paper and we’ll see them soon. But they are all teenagers, and we are leaving a year with almost no significant recognition. It is surprising to me that the Cubs sought that return. I mean, they may not have had a choice if they were determined to trade Darvish (sigh), but those are high-risk and bullish types. All four. Considerable risk here when you are moving a player as valuable as Darvish, not to mention including Caratini.
Let me put aside the loss of Darvish and Caratini for a moment and unpack a little on the spot.
In the long run, the move sets the Cubs up to have a farm system loaded by next year. If there is internal progress as we expect (based on investments in development), there is the next IFA class with Cristian Hernandez, another draft, and if there is no friction elsewhere, yes, this system can be stacked in the next off season. This is good for several reasons, as you remember well.
There is also theoretically now more dollars available to spend on acquisitions, both for the 2021 season and for the next 2022 class, and also for internal extensions. The Cubs already needed to add one or two more entries, and even if Davies takes Darvish’s place on the list, that need remains. In the catcher, could the Cubs add a veteran to pair with Contreras, could they let PJ Higgins or Taylor Gushue take over, or maybe even think Miguel Amaya might have a chance at the end of the year?
That said, unless those dollars are used in this off-season to bring some really impacting short-term pieces into a depressed market, then the Cubs are heavily downgraded to 2021 (and 2022-23, actually!). There is no way around this. The rotation is now frightening. And Caratini is very good. One of the best back-ups in the game.
There will be much more to say, specifically, about Darvish’s departure. About how he got hurt in his first year with the Cubs, suffered from absurd pain trying to figure out what the problem was, recovered (again) throughout 2019 and became one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball (again) mid 2019 until last season. He was not only an excellent artist for the Cubs, but also a great teammate, a nice guy, a fun Twitter follower and fun as hell to watch. Losing that package, on that player, will hurt.
Further on, the full scope of trade. I’m still spinning a little bit.