In effect, the president is marking the return of an appearance of normal life – with no guarantee that he can deliver.
If the president succeeds, Tuesday could be remembered as a key turning point in a pandemic exacerbated by the disastrous response from the former Trump administration. If he fails, the credibility of his new presidency will take a serious hit, which will not only prolong the crisis into another fall and winter, but will also undermine his ambitious program on other important issues.
“For a nation waiting for action, let me be clearer on this point: aid is on the way,” said Biden on Tuesday, after announcing the purchase of over 200 million doses of vaccines and an increase in distribution to states in a few days.
In a way, Biden’s promise included some political trick, as he will not get vaccine supplies anywhere near the levels required by states in the short term and he admitted that the deaths could reach half a million next month.
Tuesday’s announcement was administrative and political.
It offered a rare boost in morale after almost a year of blockades, social detachment, separated families, illness and death, especially coming in the darkest days of one of the darkest winters in years.
“Let’s say we can vaccinate 300 million people by summer, life changes dramatically and we get out of this situation where we live, where the pandemic dominates our lives,” Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, said on CNN “The Situation Room”.
Signs that there is finally a federal government that is not in denial and has a coherent plan can give businesses, from cruises to restaurants, the ability to plan ahead – a crucial factor in recovering the economy from its pandemic stagnation.
And Biden’s aggressive, daily actions aimed at fighting the pandemic since taking office may also inject a sense of urgency into the Capitol, while Republicans question the need for a rescue package that is vital to speeding up vaccinations.
New White House seeks momentum
The closure of schools has not only seriously damaged the education of a generation of children. They have complicated the lives of parents who struggle to work when they are unable to access day care centers. But the prospect of a return to school worries teacher unions – a strong force in the Democratic Party – amid concerns that especially older school officials are vulnerable to complications from the virus.
Signs of frantic activity in the West Wing are already rooting for governors accustomed to inaccurate data and guidance from the Trump administration and who are begging for more doses of vaccine.
“You have a competent and professional federal government that tells the truth,” New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, who is admittedly, like Biden, a Democrat, told CNN newspaper Wolf Blitzer.
Zients also said that distribution to states will increase 16% next week. It will be clear if these calculations are accurate in a few days. And of course, even with a 16% increase, the vaccine’s distribution will fall far short of the number that states need to reduce the crisis soon.
There has so far been no comment on Biden’s announcement of the purchase of an additional 200 million doses by Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna, the two companies confirmed that they had received emergency authorization for their vaccines.
Clearing messages
Biden’s announcement on Tuesday also represented some political screening, given some confusing and sometimes conflicting messages about targets and vaccine delivery in recent days by the president and his team.
In professing optimism on Tuesday, Biden was careful to moderate expectations, warning: “We don’t get into this mess overnight and it will take months to change things.”
His comments reflected the political risk inherent in setting deadlines and making predictions about a pernicious and unpredictable pandemic, especially in the midst of a race between the mass deployment of vaccines and virus mutations that could challenge its effectiveness.
And Biden’s promise, which follows criticism that his promise of 100 million doses of vaccine administered in his first 100 days was insufficiently ambitious, also depends on many factors other than his direct control.
Experience shows that having the vaccine available does not mean that it is being administered. The White House, however, argues that its aggressive strategy is a major improvement on the more direct approach of the Trump team, which left the states to solve the problems on their own. There may also be manufacturing failures, possible supply and transportation problems and logistical problems in the states that could compromise the White House schedule, which could again haunt the president.
“Day Seven: We found a way to ensure an adequate vaccine supply to provide a dose for EVERY adult by the summer,” tweeted White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain on Tuesday. “BUT that still leaves everyone vaccinated – building infrastructure, ending hesitation – as challenges.”
These challenges are reminiscent of the virus’s past ability to overcome local and federal government responses. Who could forget, for example, Trump’s promise that banks would be filled in churches last Easter? The new government’s plans appear to be on firmer ground and rooted in science. Trump’s pronouncements were based on illusions, precarious information and politically selfish statements.
To support the president’s promise to deploy science and not hide bad news, the CDC and other experts are expected to re-launch briefings at the White House on Wednesday.
There are also long-term challenges.
Despite the president’s daily admonitions that wearing a mask can save tens of thousands of lives, the practice remains highly politicized in a country where many conservatives believe conspiracy theories that he stole the election.
If the number of cases continues to drop, governors – especially those in states run by Republicans – may prematurely reopen business at normal levels and unleash new waves of disease before the Biden virus strategy is fully released.