Based on the data, in the category of best film, six films are favorites for nominations.
Using historical data to predict Oscar – an exercise I have done in the past ten years – is ultimately a statement that the past is a decent predictor of the future. My model covers data from a series of critical circle awards, guild awards and other sources, weighing each one based on how well they have predicted each category in recent years. All things considered, the model did very well. Last year’s nominee predictions were 40/44, and last year’s prize predictions were 17/21.
But what happens when the present is so strange that it is nothing like the past? Welcome to the strangest year of the Oscar prediction. From new eligibility rules to new voting procedures for BAFTA, going through a new award schedule and watching all the films at home, this will be a unique awards season. Time will tell what that means for the reliability of any prediction system, but tradition must endure: here are my mathematical predictions for the 2020 Oscar nominee.
Best photo
In many ways, these ratings can serve not just as nominee predictions, but as a state of play six weeks before the Oscars. Nomadland is in the lead for the best shot, but it’s very likely he’s competing against Promising young woman, The Chicago Trial 7, Minari, Mank, and One night in miami. All six of these films have more than one 7 in 8 image to make the cut. The second layer comprises Da 5 Bloods, Black Bottom by Ma Rainey, and Metal sound. These three have a reasonable chance of being nominated, although it is far from guaranteed. And they will need a very strong race in March and April to have a chance to lift the final trophy. Even if all nine mathematical favorites enter, it still leaves a spot under the new rules that guarantee ten nominees. No film is above 50 percent, but Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The father, Judas and the Black Messiah, and World News are the most likely participants.
Best director
There is only one block to nominating the best director and, unsurprisingly, he is the director of the best pioneer film. Chloe Zhao managed to mix professional actors with people playing themselves in the all American history of Nomadland, and she is the clear leader to win this category on April 25th. The rest of the Directors Guild nominees claim the top four places in the top 5: Emerald Fennell (Promising young woman), Aaron Sorkin (The Chicago Trial 7), David Fincher (Mank), and Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) But these four are not as safe as Zhao, which could leave room for one by Regina King (One night in miami), Kelly Reichardt (First cow), or Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods)
Best Actor
The late Chadwick Boseman ranks not in one, but in two categories – best actor for Black Bottom by Ma Rainey and best supporting actor for Da 5 Bloods. But it’s in the main category, where he’s most likely to win a posthumous Oscar, potentially joining Peter Finch in Network as the only winners of the best actor to do it after his death. Anthony Hopkins (The father), Riz Ahmed (Metal sound) and Gary Oldman (Mank) should set their alarms for Monday morning. But fifth place is very much up for grabs.
Best actress
Frances McDormand (Nomadland) and Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of woman) received nominations from the Screen Actors Guild, BAFTAs, Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. This is good enough for a tie for first place. Carey Mulligan (Promising young woman) and Viola Davis (Black Bottom by Ma Rainey) missed waves to BAFTA, but in addition to this anomaly, they are sailing at the start of the awards season. Andra’s Day (United States x Billie Holiday) cannot rest so easily, having missed a Screen Actor Guild nomination for Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy) This could leave room for Adams or Golden Globe comedy winner Rosamund Pike (I care a lot) to take Day’s place on the list.
Best Supporting Actor
On the eve of the nominations, the best supporting actor looks like a three-way dispute between Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Leslie Odom Jr. (One night in miami), and Sacha Baron Cohen (The Chicago Trial 7) That leaves two points, and no one has a better chance than 50-50 to take one of them. Golden Globe nominee Bill Murray (On the rocks), BAFTA nominee Paul Raci (Metal sound), Nominated SAG Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods), and Golden Globe / SAG nominee Jared Leto (The little things) can all claim what they want, but none of them convincingly swept the payout season to prove they’re a lock on a slot. And don’t be surprised if the fifth nominee comes from outside this group.
Best supporting actress
Only Mahershala Ali has won two acting Oscars in the past ten years, but there are several candidates who could join him this year, including 2019 winner Olivia Colman. After winning the leadership category for The favorite, she will now look for a supportive victory for The father. But right behind her is Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) and Youn Yuh-jung (Minari) Mathematics says that the three most likely actresses for the last two places are Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Helena Zengel (World News), and permanent candidate Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) Previous winners Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian) and Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of woman) are also competing for this race.
Best Original Screenplay
The first two could not be more different. Aaron Sorkin (The Chicago Trial 7) is a nominee three times and winner once for The social network. Chicago 7 it is the kind of film that Hollywood loves to make, and Sorkin brought an immersive real story to life and, at the same time, made it relevant to the present day. Emerald Fennell (Promising young woman) is looking for its first nominations this year, and it does so with an original and brilliant story that uses wit, horror and sadness to vehemently condemn the treatment that society gives to women. Who are they going to fight? Jack Fincher, posthumously nominated for his son’s film Mank, is a likely bet. Darius and Abraham Marder (Metal sound) and Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) can easily be # 4 and # 5. From there, things get more unpredictable. BAFTAs have done a good job in the past in predicting nominees in the script categories, so their nominees for 2020 do well on this list, but with BAFTAs going through a new jury selection system this year, we’ll have to wait and see if they are as related to the Oscars as in previous years.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Chloe Zhao, also a favorite for best film and best director, is at the top of the charts for best adapted script. There is a good chance that she will have to go through Florian Zeller / Christopher Hampton (The father), Ruben Santiago-Hudson (Black Bottom by Ma Rainey), and Kemp Powers (One night in miami) to get there. All other possibilities are below 50 percent, so at least one competitor will appear on Monday morning with a pleasant surprise. And, in fact, that’s one of the good and terrible things about Oscar – it’s a zero-sum game. For each turn – and certainly, there will be sadness, especially in such a strange year – one nominee goes after, but the other will perhaps have the happiest surprise of his life.
Ben Zauzmer is the author of Oscarmetrics: the math behind Hollywood’s biggest night.