The NFL postseason starts on Saturday, and this year’s format is a whole new adventure: the league added a third wildcard wave at each conference this season, meaning 12 teams will be competing on an epic first weekend, while the Chiefs and Packers sit and wait for their opponents in the divisional round. So, who will reign supreme? Will the Chiefs find the equipment they lacked in the final weeks of the regular season? Will Aaron Rodgers continue his MVP-level tour de force? Or will another team come out of the hole to give these teams a run for their money? The RingerNFL team members make their choices for the playoff below.
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Kevin Clark: It is with a heavy heart that I choose almost entirely chalk, with the exception, perhaps, of the Super Bowl. There is a reason for this: this season was defined by small edges that became big. If you do some things really well, that’s all you need to compete. We have no idea how much limited practice time it represents for players and teams, or the stress of such a complicated season. But everything matters. I said since August that most people in the league see this season’s result as a kind of Occam’s razor: the simplest explanation is the best. That means Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, Aaron Rodgers and a talented Packers team meet in the Super Bowl.
This was the season with the highest score of all time and I am choosing the best football attack by scored points, the Packers and the best defender of the sport in Mahomes. This may seem simplistic, but in a season with so many variables, it is better to go with the most talented groups, who need less to win the Super Bowl. Football Outsiders gives this Super Bowl showdown a 21% chance of happening, and it’s easy to see why. There are few things more automatic than these defenders meeting their skill guys – Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill in the case of Mahomes, and Davante Adams in the case of Rodgers. And both defenses are certainly good enough for that to happen – the Chiefs are 10th in points, the Packers 13th.
There are clear paths for a handful of other teams – I love the Ravens and the Bills are the hottest team in football right now. But I don’t think either of them can beat Mahomes in AFC. It sounds like rubbish science, but it still proves to be true: Mahomes is inevitable, and he is the tiebreaker between the Chiefs and the teams that are right behind them.
At NFC, the teams with the best cases – the Saints and Bucs – have big doubts that the Packers don’t. The average number of air patios intended by Drew Brees is almost half a meter less than last year, when he launched incredibly short passes, and his health still worries me after he had a punctured lung and several broken ribs. The Bucs just couldn’t chase impressive games enough, even though they recently beat four consecutive bad teams. This is the strangest season of all time, and I’m ready to believe anything – but in the playoffs, I can only trust the two best teams.
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Danny Kelly: I chose the chalk mostly here, but for me, the heads, packers and accounts stand out above the rest of the postseason teams. These three teams are led by big-armed, dynamic quarterbacks and MVP fighters, each of whom has shown the ability to enter God Mode at times and lead their respective teams to victory. And although I really wanted to choose Aaron Rodgers and the Packers (who finished the regular season first in both points per game, with 31.8, and the Football Outsiders offensive DVOA) or play the dice on the Bills led by Josh Allen (who only ended up scoring 56 points in the Dolphins’ previously petty defense and averaged 37.9 points per game in the last eight matches), it’s hard to bet against an experienced and powerful team like the Chiefs.
Defending champions have the unique advantage of having Patrick Mahomes in the center, of course, and while it is true that Kansas City was not as sharp as the Packers or Bills last month, the team feels like a sleeping dragon that is ready to wake up and belch some flames. Under coach Andy Reid, the Chiefs are as confrontational as any team can be. Kansas City is able to create and exploit incompatibilities with Travis Kelce, who finished second in the NFL in yards received (1,416) this season, while recovering in 11 touchdowns. And regardless of the defense the Chiefs face, no one on the pitch is quick enough to keep up with Tyreek Hill, who has accumulated 1,276 yards and 15 touchdowns.
Kansas City is also unmatched in its ability to play in every conceivable style of play. Whether the Chiefs seek to play a slow, race-centric style, to go through the devastated land with an accelerated and pass-happy attack, or to dive and bury the field, Reid and Mahomes have shown their ability to succeed this year. No clue is safe against this team. They are basically impossible to combine. And they are extremely difficult to prepare. For these reasons, Chiefs are my choice.
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Rodger Sherman: I love watching Josh Allen, who has totally transformed himself into an Unparalleled Launch God. I love watching Aaron Rodgers continue to be Aaron Rodgers after all these years. I love it when Russ cooks and I love it when the Ravens run away. But it seems that everything that is happening in the NFL is a subplot when compared to Patrick Mahomes. It is intriguing that Kansas City was less than dominant on the straight while the Bills surprised everyone, but I still think it would be silly to choose any team besides the Chiefs.
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Danny Heifetz: Three years ago, the Saints were eliminated from the playoffs by Stefon Diggs at the Minneapolis Miracle. This year, the Saints will face Diggs in the Super Bowl, but this time, Diggs will be on the Bills – and on the losing side.
Bills beating AFC would hardly look like an annoyance. As dominant as the Chiefs may have been, their neglect at the start of the game should catch up with them at some point. No team is more suited to eliminating them than Buffalo – although the Chiefs may not even be able to get out of the second round, considering the way the Ravens are playing.
But when I think of the Super Bowl, the team I always go back to is New Orleans. This group is talented, profound and healthy. They can win many types of games. Best of all – extreme football cliché alert – they play complementary football. New Orleans has the best running game and the second best defense in the NFC. Running back Alvin Kamara may lose the Bears game while recovering from COVID-19, but Kamara lost a game against Bears last year and reserve Latavius Murray ran for 119 yards and two touchdowns.
Running to the side, the Saints are also bringing important players back at the right time. Receiver Michael Thomas may return from the injured reserve this week, and his elite offensive line is likely to have some starters back as well. Betting that Brees will get a Super Bowl at 42 is risky, especially considering that he will probably have to beat Aaron Rodgers in the NFC championship game at Lambeau Field for that. But New Orleans has the best offensive line and the most profound defense of the conference. This time, the saints will be on the right side of a miracle.
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Nora Princiotti: Before we get to more pressing issues like the Super Bowl, for example, I would like to address the issue of my prediction of a Browns turn on the Steelers in the wild card round. I felt a lot better about this prediction before Cleveland had several important people – including coach Kevin Stefanski, left guard Joel Bitonio and receiver KhaDarel Hodge – positive test for COVID-19 this week. I thought about responding to this information in a rational / cowardly way, changing my choice, but, after a lot of thinking (read: not much), I decided to continue with it. Destiny team! Until they meet the Bosses in the divisional round, that is.
About the Chefs. They are my AFC choice to return to the Super Bowl after defeating Josh Allen and the Bills in what would be a very fun conference championship game. Bills has the best defense and special teams, but I still believe that the Chiefs have another march that will trigger the playoffs. They also have Patrick Mahomes, which seems relevant.
Kansas City, however, will not repeat itself as a Super Bowl champion. That honor will belong to the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers, who will put all of your energy that you have called as a defender in this tiebreaker round.
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Kaelen Jones: There may be reason to worry about the Chiefs, as they have won six consecutive games that were decided by six points or less before losing their final in Week 17 while resting the main players. And then there is Patrick Mahomes returns lucky, which could potentially run against a good team in the playoffs. But even if the Chiefs dig a hole for themselves, Mahomes is already one of the best QBs of all time. He has an elite skill set and is surrounded by All-Pro-caliber players in Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. After watching Mahomes and Co. run their Super Bowl race last season, there aren’t many reasons why they shouldn’t be favorites to win, even though the team hasn’t consistently played at its highest level this year.
However, there is a potential obstacle on the way from Kansas City to the Super Bowl: Buffalo Bills. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll unlocked quarterback Josh Allen this season, and Allen’s astronomical leap was aided in a huge way by his talented support cast, including NFL’s top receiver, Stefon Diggs. Bill’s attack has been great throughout the season, and his talented defense has awakened just in time. This does not mean that the bills have enough to dominate bosses, but they will be able to at least compete with them.
The Packers, meanwhile, have been successful this season because of Aaron Rodgers’ MVP caliber game. Green Bay is one of the few teams that could boast any kind of advantage at home. That combination may be enough to get Rodgers back to the Super Bowl. But despite how efficient the Packers have been – and how legendary Rodgers is – it’s not enough to scare me when choosing Chiefs.
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Riley McAtee: Choosing the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl seems a bit like cheating. They have the best record in the NFL, are the champions and are the favorites to repeat. And while I don’t think this Kansas City team is an unstoppable juggernaut, I think they are the least flawed team in the league. Looking at the rest of the AFC, it is difficult to choose a team that can dethrone the Chiefs. I still don’t fully trust the Bills (which the Chiefs defeated earlier this year); the Steelers’ offense seems downright terrible for more than a month; and the Titans have the worst defense of any playoff team. The Ravens put their attack back on track last month, but will be playing on the road throughout the postseason. And, of course, the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes, their undeniable asset.
The Chiefs can certainly lose, however, and one team that can defeat them is the Packers. Chiefs-Packers would be a dream duel in the Super Bowl. They are the best teams in each conference, they have two best quarterbacks in the NFL, and this would be a rematch for Super Bowl I. It is also a game that should feature offensive fireworks, since the Chiefs and Packers have the two main attacks by DVOA, but are mediocre on the other side of the ball (17th for Green Bay, 22nd for Kansas City). We were stolen from an Aaron Rodgers – Patrick Mahomes duel last season, when Mahomes lost the game against the Packers due to a knee injury, and now it’s time for the universe to fix that.