Anecdotes like Geismann’s, however, are not easy to interpret. Perhaps Schuchart and companies like her would have found another way to pay the bills, or they would have rehired workers quickly as soon as construction projects were resumed.
Economists tried to answer that question using data. Mr. Author compared companies with just under 500 employees – who could qualify for the original version of the program – with companies just over that size, who couldn’t. If loans helped a lot, smaller companies should have retained many more workers. Instead, Mr. Author found little difference between the two groups.
But some economists argue that this research underestimates the program’s impact because it fails to focus on smaller companies, which were less likely to have large cash reserves or other financing.
One article, based on a survey of companies in Oakland, California, found that those who received PPP loans were 20.5 percent more likely to say that they expected to survive six months – but that relatively greater optimism was limited to companies with less than five employees.
Robert Bartlett, one of the authors of the Oakland study, said economists like Author can be right in saying that the PPP saved fewer jobs than expected. “But for these small companies, I think it helped them to keep the doors open,” he said. “I am convinced of that.” Many of these companies, he noted, are in poor neighborhoods or belong to racial or ethnic minorities.
Daniel G. Guerra Jr. founded AltusLearn, which offers training and compliance courses for medical professionals, in 2013. Last year, the Madison, Wisconsin-based company had six employees and was on track for a year of significant growth.
Instead, when the pandemic started, medical centers suspended virtually all non-urgent care and canceled training.