The decision by a panel of the International Criminal Court to pave the way for a possible investigation into Israel’s war crimes is forcing the Biden government to enter the Israeli-Palestinian conflict much earlier than anticipated.
Why it matters: The ICC’s decision infuriated the Israeli government – and it also underscored its confidence in the Biden government, Israeli officials told me. After the decision was announced on Friday, Israel immediately opened urgent consultations with US officials.
- On Monday morning, the US charge of affairs in Jerusalem met with Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi to discuss the matter.
- Hours later, Secretary of State Tony Blinken spoke to Ashkenazi and assured him that the United States would help Israel to oppose the ICC decision, Israeli officials told me.
The big picture: Unlike the Obama and Trump governments, the Biden government does not see the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a foreign policy priority and has little hope for progress.
- On CNN on Monday, Blinken summed up President Biden’s initial approach to the issue as “doing no harm” – to ensure that neither side takes unilateral action that further obstructs the road to peace.
- Biden does not believe there is a realistic chance of resuming negotiations between the parties anytime soon, and therefore does not plan to appoint a special envoy for the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
But, just three weeks after Biden’s tenure began, Israeli officials are warning of a deep crisis in Israeli-Palestinian relations if the ICC prosecutor takes over the war crimes investigation, which was initially requested by the Palestinian government.
- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu now desperately needs Biden’s support on an issue of extreme importance to Israel.
- The State Department has already contested the ICC’s decision that it has jurisdiction to investigate the matter.
- The Israeli government now expects the Biden government to put pressure on the court’s member states and the prosecutor not to proceed with the investigation.
What to watch: This confidence can give the United States an advantage when it seeks to prevent the Israeli government from taking provocative measures, such as building new settlements, or it can obtain Israeli approval for the reopening of the US Consulate in Jerusalem.
- But the ICC decision could also complicate the Biden government’s efforts to renew ties with the Palestinians – in particular, the plan to reopen the PLO’s Washington office, which the Trump administration closed in 2018.
- An existing law in the United States requires the Secretary of State to certify to Congress that the Palestinian Authority is not seeking action against Israel at the ICC in order for the PLO to be allowed to have an office in Washington.
The current situation: Palestinian leaders welcomed the ICC’s decision and called for an investigation as soon as possible. It is not clear whether the Biden government has had any conversations with Palestinian officials on the matter.