A major new survey of Trump voters in 2020 shows how they were divided over Social Security, Medicare, trade and tax cuts for the wealthy – while culture, religion and patriotism and the U.S.-Mexico border were unifying issues.
Driving the news: The YouGov poll of 1,000 voters, conducted last month and reviewed by Axios, reports on a Friday forum about the future of the Republican Party promoted by the American Enterprise Institute and the Ethics and Public Policy Center. He captures the thought of that powerful slice of the base, not just post-election, but post-January. 6
- “The challenge for Republicans after Trump is how to build on the conservative populist alliance, not discount the populist part, “said Henry Olsen, who led the study.
By the numbers: Asked to respond to a statement previously considered Republican Party orthodoxy – “Cutting the rate of taxes paid by the wealthiest Americans helps increase economic growth for all of us” – 46% said they disagree.
- One-third questioned whether cutting taxes on large corporations helps boost economic growth for all.
- 60% said foreign trade helps the US economy, while 40% said it hurts.
- 40% said that foreign trade creates more jobs for Americans, while 60% said it reduces the number of jobs for Americans.
- 55% said that controlling the cost of Medicare to taxpayers is more important, but 45% said it is more important to ensure that the elderly receive the health care they need, regardless of cost.
- 63% said it is more important to keep Social Security benefits at current levels, even if it means raising payroll taxes, but 37% prefer to maintain control over payroll taxes, even if it means cutting benefits to future retirees.
But, but, but: Nearly nine out of ten supported the construction of a US-Mexico border wall, supported American employers who certify workers’ citizenship, concerned about increasing discrimination against whites, and said the Christian faith is essential to American greatness, but is under attack.
Between the lines: There is a real divide within the Trump coalition over the future of the GOP.
- 66% said they were more in favor of former President Trump than the Republican Party.
- 37% said the party is on the wrong track.
- 40% said Republicans are more concerned with helping people make more money than helping people make a decent living.
- 54% said they would definitely support Trump in 2024 if he ran again.
What they are saying: “The Trump coalition is fundamentally different” from pre-Trump Republicans and voters with a Republican inclination, Olsen told Axios.
- “As soon as we move away from the economy towards patriotism, culture, religious issues, it is really a clear supermajority and that unites the coalition … There really is no way for a modern Democratic coalition to enter into this conversation in these terms.”
- “But the economy definitely divides the Trump coalition. … All the things that defined economic thinking before Trump are now a complete division.” Going back to conservative economic ideas could be “how to open a door for Democrats to pass.”
- The challenge for Republicans is “they have to cement the Trump coalition outside of Trump’s personality”.
Methodology: this poll of 1,000 Trump 2020 voters was conducted from January 11 to 14, 2021, with a +/- 3.5% margin of error
- YouGov interviewed 1,069 Trump voters out of a sample of 1,000 to produce the final data set based on the characteristics of Trump voters in the 2020 Cooperative Congressional Election Study. The paired data were weighted by age, sex, race and education using the weighting of the propensity score.