The Houston Rockets are trading PJ Tucker, Rodions Kurucs and Milwaukee for the first round of 2022 with Bucks in exchange for DJ Augustin, DJ Wilson and an unprotected 2023 choice in the first round, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. In addition, Houston won the right to exchange its choice of the second round of 2021 for the choice of the first round of Milwaukee of 2021, provided that the Bucks do not choose among the first nine. Bucks is also switching forward Torrey Craig to Phoenix Suns, according to Wojnarowski. The Rockets had already removed Tucker from the lineup when it became clear that a deal was coming. Now, he has his wish. He will join a championship contender at the Bucks as Houston continues its move towards reconstruction.
Tucker, now 35, was once one of the most versatile strikers in the NBA. In fact, calling him an attacker may not even be accurate. In fact, he is a defender, an increasingly important type of player in the postseason, when the best teams tend to shrink. Tucker has played this role brilliantly in the past. Whether he can still do that or not at his age is unclear.
The Rockets, meanwhile, are moving forward in full rebuilding. Tucker is probably the first of several veterans to be negotiated on time, with rumors also surrounding Victor Oladipo and, before his injury, Eric Gordon. Houston has already lost 17 consecutive games. Christian Wood’s absence is partly responsible, but in reality, the Rockets just weren’t meant to win now. They recognized this and continue to prioritize seed capital in response.
Tucker is one of the first big dominoes to fall in this timeframe. Almost all the contenders allegedly inquired about him at some point. He fits into almost any winning team and now, in a year of contract, he will have a chance to prove himself to the rest of the NBA during a playoff in Milwaukee. Here’s how both teams evaluate in the business:
Milwaukee: A-
The success or failure of this trade will boil down to how much Tucker still has in his tank at 35. His season has been bleak, to say the least. After shooting more than 39 percent in the 3-point corner in the past four seasons, he has dropped to 33.8 percent this season. Most defensive metrics suggest a significant, but not overwhelming, decline. The eye test was also disheartening. It’s not surprising, given his age, but Tucker isn’t moving as smoothly as he used to. He is still strong enough to fight the pivots, but the effectiveness with which he can still change for perimeter players is still a mystery.
The Bucks is betting that he has at least one more chance on him. It is a totally justifiable bet. After all, Tucker spent years getting clean looks from James Harden. Harden’s departure interrupted the entire crime and Tucker was a victim. He has averaged almost 3.5 open points from 3 points per game in the past two seasons. Now it has dropped to 2.1. Milwaukee should have no problem replicating the photos that Harden created for Tucker.
This exchange is about defense, however, and even if Tucker is not himself, he is almost certainly an upgrade. The Bucks had the NBA’s No. 1 defense in each of the past two seasons, but dropped to tenth place this season. To some extent, this is intentional. Milwaukee’s fall coverage has been exposed in the past two postseason, so the Bucks is changing more in an effort to prepare for the postseason. Brook Lopez is simply too slow to participate effectively in that plan and, unsurprisingly, Milwaukee’s defense was 5.3 points per 100 possessions better with him on the bench. The Rockets had the NBA’s best defense with 1.9 points for 100 possessions between Harden’s exchange and Wood’s injury, and Tucker’s participation in that success indicates that he can still be valuable when his team is competitive.
Apart from Draymond Green, no small ball player has been better at switching defensively in recent years than Tucker. Houston was so comfortable playing Tucker in the center that he abandoned his traditional big men entirely last season. Milwaukee will not do the same. Lopez is still a valuable rim protector, and the Bucks are likely to still play drop coverage with their beginners and against certain opponents. But they need to be able to switch if they plan to contain the Brooklyn shooting. Tucker, at the very least, is better than Lopez at this. If he is the same? The Bucks is an elite defense again.
This covers the part of the basketball business. The asset part is just as important. By making DJ Augustin the top salary filler in the business, Milwaukee has not only escaped the last year fully guaranteed in his contract, but has moved away from a player who may have done more harm than good this season. Augustin is hitting 38% of his 3 points, but only 34.9% of his 2 points. His assist rate has declined considerably, and his tiny stature makes him a defensive negative. Finding a replacement won’t be easy, but Milwaukee has managed to give himself a little extra flexibility in this business.
Bucks created about $ 3 million in extra space under the hard limit with this deal. Part of that will have to go to fill Craig’s roster seat, but it makes any subsequent deal that Milwaukee finds a little easier from the ceiling point of view. The idea of Milwaukee making multi-term acquisitions seemed ridiculous before that, given its lack of assets, but Bucks actually, in a sense, replenished its asset base with this business. Why? They tap dance around Stepien’s Rule, which prevents teams from running out of choices in the first round in consecutive years. The Bucks had already sent their first 2022 round to Cleveland, but as they got it back in this negotiation, their choice of 2021 first round became negotiable. They essentially traded it for the Houston 2021 runoff election, which they can now negotiate. That choice will likely fall somewhere in their 30s, making it a worthwhile chip.
Does this mean that the Bucks will change and replace Augustin with him? Possibly, but matching wages will still be difficult for them. Wilson and Augustin are gone, and Kurucs cannot be added as a salary. This leaves the Bucks with three pieces of reasonably sized debris: Pat Connaughton, Bobby Portis and Bryn Forbes. All three play important roles in the rotation, but they combine to make about $ 10 million. If the Bucks are confident that they can replace them in the takeover market, it may be worth exploring what they could achieve by some combination of the three along with that Houston choice. Even if they don’t do anything, they probably saved a little money by dodging the first round of this year’s draft, as the second round’s choices are not subject to the rookie scale.
In short, this is the best deal Milwaukee could have done on time due to wage and asset restrictions. Tucker is not exactly the player he was, and the risk of changing an unprotected pick under any circumstances is significant, but the Bucks got exactly the type of piece they needed and did it in a way that makes them more flexible in the short term . This is a major victory for Milwaukee, who is trying to build a squad capable of competing with Brooklyn at the Eastern Conference.
Houston: B
This is a fascinating trade from Houston’s point of view. Technically, the Rockets didn’t get any choice, and you can argue that that means they didn’t get much value, either. They turned their 2021 second round choice into a first round choice, but remember who those choices are. There is a non-zero chance that the Bucks will choose last in the first round and the Rockets will choose first in the second, essentially giving Houston a one-slot upgrade. Realistically, it’s probably closer to five or six slots, but that’s not much, especially when you consider the value of second-round choices not being subject to the rookie scale. They then transformed a choice from the first 2022 round into a choice from the first 2023 round on the same team, neither of which came with any protection. Again, on paper, this is not a dunk.
But think a little more critically about the Milwaukee situation and Houston’s motives will become clearer. Jrue Holiday is 30 years old. Brook Lopez is 32. Tucker is 35. This is an old team and is not well positioned to recharge through recruitment or free agency. The Bucks are all-in at present. Their future, even with Giannis Antetokounmpo in place, is a little more difficult. With the chance that Antetokounmpo will be dissatisfied in Milwaukee by 2023? That choice becomes significantly more valuable. Even if it does not, the age of its supporting cast suggests that the choice of 2023 will be slightly larger than the 2022 they already had.
Let’s say Milwaukee is upgraded to up to five slots in 2021 and the 2023 choice is five slots better than the 2022 selection. Considering where these updates are coming in the draft, they are almost certainly worth more than the second choice type. round that Houston was probably offered to Tucker. If the Rockets could have made an unimpeded choice in the first round for him, they would have done so. The fact that they didn’t suggest that most teams were offering only seconds, so the Rockets were creative. In the process, they created more value than they would have by simply making choices that were likely to result in the 1940s or 1950s.
This leaves Houston in a relatively strong position when entering the 2021 project. They now have three choices for the first round: Portland, Milwaukee and their own or Miami, depending on whether or not they fall in the top four. Having these two extra picks in the first round gives the Rockets ammo to go up, even if they lose their own pick in that exchange with Thunder. This is well worth a 35-year-old man with an expired contract that was not yielding better offers.