Short story: vaccines work. Data from the launch of the Pfizer vaccine in Israel, conducted in a broad campaign, show that it also works quickly. Only the first shot alone reduces the risk of transmission significantly, with estimates ranging from 33% to 60%. It is exactly the impact that would be expected from a vaccine in a pandemic, but it has not yet been quantified.
This calls into question the currently slow implementation of vaccinations for the masses:
Initial data from Israel’s vaccination campaign shows that Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine inhibits infections by about 50 percent 14 days after the first of the two injections, a senior Ministry of Health official said on Tuesday, due to to the country’s severe cases of COVID-19, daily infections and total active all cases reach historic peaks.
Sharon Alroy-Preis, head of the public health department at the Ministry of Health, told Canal 12 News that the data was preliminary and based on the results of coronavirus tests among those who received the vaccine and those who did not.
Other somewhat contrary data was released by Israeli health maintenance organizations on Tuesday night. Channel 13 News said that, according to data released by Clalit, Israel’s largest health care provider, the chance of a person becoming infected with the coronavirus dropped 33% 14 days after being vaccinated. Separate numbers recorded by health provider Maccabi and broadcast on Channel 12 showed that the vaccine caused a 60% drop in the chances of infection 14 days after the first injection.
As noted, Israel’s transmission rates have not shown the full impact of this phenomenon, but the news is encouraging nonetheless. This suggests that extensive vaccination programs would greatly reduce the rate of transmission in the community almost immediately, and that the second injection would almost eliminate it if it were widely distributed. Israel reached only 20% of its population with the first shot, which is much further than the United States has achieved, but Israel’s population is much smaller and more concentrated as well.
The lesson here is to vaccinate as many people as possible on the first injection. Perhaps the CDC took a look at the Israeli data in making its policy change yesterday, but this seems to have been more about the perverse incentives of the stricter implementation regime that they first enacted. This led to the destruction of doses to avoid draconian penalties for vaccinations outside the rules, a result that is not only infuriating, but totally counterproductive. Now, New York is dismantling these perverse incentives, at least in terms of inoculating the elderly and people with severe comorbidities, but only after a huge public reaction to the ridiculous results of their severe application.
This can still be a very restrictive plan. If we want to reduce transmission rates to fully reopen our economies, we need to inoculate entire populations quickly. This means solving supply and distribution problems, of course, but the best plan may be to deliver these doses to existing private sector distribution channels and let them go on a first-come, first-served basis. Let Walgreens, CVS, Walmart, Target and other pharmacies take the manufacturer in sufficient arms to seriously bend the curve down. This will also help protect the vulnerable, making COVID-19 less apparent in the population, perhaps a week or two after the start of a large and serious deployment.
Lets do this. Quickly.