The fight for the championship that was sparked during the preparation for the new season crystallized on the front row of the grid for the Bahrain Grand Prix.
Red Bull’s Max Verstappen beat world champion Lewis Hamilton and took pole position by just under four tenths of a second. It was almost a reversal of last year’s situation, when Hamilton took pole and Verstappen was four tenths behind, in third.
With 22 more races to go in this one, we must be careful not to invest too much meaning in the first round of many. But it is clear that the small changes in regulations during the off-season – certainly compared to what is to come next year – have had a profound effect on the competitive order.
All teams are slower than in Bahrain four months ago. But the main change with regard to the championship is that Mercedes lost more than two seconds to Red Bull’s 1.3.
Hamilton suspects that Red Bull will at least maintain that pace advantage in the race. “I think they have the difference in pace that they have today, they usually take it to the race,” he said.
“They are very strong in the race conditions. I would like to think that we can close a little bit, but I think they still have at least two tenths in hand. “
Friday’s race suggested that the two teams were closer together in lap times instead of longer runs. But Hamilton said that is not the case “because of the information I have received and what I can see”.
“Our balance was not so spectacular, but it was not the worst when driving,” he said. “It was only if you put all the preparations out, it seemed like there were a few tenths of a difference between us.
“But we will see. It definitely didn’t look terrible and it was much better than I thought it would be on the tests. “
A weakness that Red Bull had last year persisted in the first race of the new season: they still look like a car team. Sergio Perez was unable to keep up with Verstappen in the final qualifying round, although to be fair his 0.3 second deficit for his teammate in Q2 is less than his predecessor’s typical last season, and this was only his sixth day driving the car.
Still, it leaves Verstappen ahead without a winger, with two Mercedes potentially capable of exploring different strategies to put pressure on Red Bull. Unless, of course, Perez can progress quickly through the seven cars that separate him from the front trio.
This is likely to be a little more difficult than last year, as the midfield has gotten much faster since the last Bahrain Grand Prix. Red Bull was the only team less than a second from Mercedes in Bahrain last year. But this weekend three teams other than Mercedes are so close to Red Bull – McLaren, Ferrari and AlphaTauri – and five of their six cars line up in front of Perez.
The speed of the midfield leaders will have another influence on the race. Last year, either of the two Mercedes drivers who were normally leading a race, left the field behind so quickly that they could go after new tires and go outdoors. It may take longer to get the necessary leadership this year and the cars they come up with behind will be faster.
This can lead to some complicated strategy calls. But realistically, it is less likely to be a problem in Bahrain – where long, wide straights help overtake – than on narrower and more winding circuits like the next one on the calendar.
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With limited test data on new cars and revised tires, the Bahrain Grand Prix will be a race of discoveries. This will be more important for some drivers than for others. Fernando Alonso – back in F1 after a two-year absence and, as his qualifying performance has shown, clearly sharper than ever before – is approaching the race less for the result he can get than for the information he can gather.
“Tomorrow we will have a general idea of what we want to do, how many stops we want to make, what laps we want to make,” he explained. “On my side, I will like to have a good start, a good first lap without incident, try to do a clean race and then perform the tire management and pit stops in the best way I can.
“Because I need this information. I need to do 15, 20 laps with each of the compounds and feel how the degradation is going, how the balance is changing, how to handle these tires.
“There are a lot of things that some of the people around me on the grid have a lot more knowledge about now to start the championship. And I want to have those classes in my pocket tomorrow night, when you finish the race.
“So, if that’s enough to finish seventh, fantastic. If it’s 11, that’s fine. If it’s 15, that’s fine too. But I need that information tomorrow night. “
But for the front row occupants, this race is about who draws the first blood in the fight for the championship. Interestingly, Hamilton has not started a new season with a win since 2015. But Red Bull is eyeing its first chance of victory at the season opener in a decade.
Almost everything so far this weekend points to them achieving this.
Quotes: Dieter Rencken
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Red Bull sought to win all weekend – will Mercedes deny it on race day? And who are you keeping an eye on for the season’s opening race?
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