Although the New England Patriots have already been eliminated from the playoff contest, the team will still keep a close eye on qualifying for the end of this week’s regular season against the New York Jets. While they are in a virtual no-man’s land due to their 6-9 record, there is a chance that they will still rise significantly on the board, depending on how Week 17 unfolds not just against the Jets, but elsewhere in the league .
After all, the NFL’s order of recruitment is not as determined as the image of the playoff. Direct confrontations are not the decisive tiebreaker criterion, for example, but the strength of the schedule followed by division, conference and interconference ties, as well as, eventually, a heads or tails. Given that, there is a chance that the Patriots will move up a bit from their current number 14 draft slot.
Before getting into potential scenarios, however, let’s take a look at the current NFL draft order with team records and schedule strengths in parentheses:
-
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-14 / .548) *
- New York Jets (2-13 / .592) *
-
Miami Dolphins via Houston Texans (4-11 / .540)
-
Atlanta Falcons (4-11 / 0.550)
-
Cincinnati Bengals (4-10-1 / .527)
-
Philadelphia Eagles (4-10-1 / .531)
-
Detroit Lions (5-10 / 0.504)
-
New York Giants (5-10 / 0.506)
-
Carolina Panthers (5-10 / 0.529)
-
Denver Broncos (5-10 / 0.567)
-
Dallas Cowboys (6-9 / .465)
-
Los Angeles Chargers (6-9 / .490)
-
Minnesota Vikings (6-9 / .508)
- New England Patriots (6-9 / .533)
-
San Francisco 49ers (6-9 / 0.544)
-
Las Vegas Raiders (7-8 / .542)
* Already conquered
As can be seen, New England currently holds 14th position, but is in a five-team tie with the Cowboys, Chargers, Vikings and 49ers. With the Raiders, current owners of selection # 16, unable to beat the Patriots based on the strength of the schedule, the worst position for Bill Belichick and company is therefore 15th: if the Jets and 49ers win against the Seattle Seahawks , that will be their position.
However, there is also a scenario in which the team moves up the draft a bit – possibly up to the tenth overall choice. However, a lot would have to happen for this to happen, as the following games would all have to happen this week, in addition to the Patriots dropping to 2-13 Jets, calculated by Jeff Howe of The Athletic:
- Minnesota Vikings (13 / 6-9 / 0.508) defeated the Detroit Lions (7 / 5-10 / 0.504)
- Carolina Panthers (9 / 5-10 / 0,529) defeated the New Orleans Saints (29 / 11-4 / 0,465)
- Dallas Cowboys (11 / 6-9 / .465) defeated the New York Giants (8 / 5-10 / .506)
- Denver Broncos (10 / 5-10 / 0.567) won the Las Vegas Raiders (16 / 7-8 / 0.542)
- Los Angeles Chargers (6-9 / .490) defeated Kansas City Chiefs (32 / 14-1 / .458)
If all of these games plus the Patriots-Jets were going according to plan, New England would find themselves in 6-10 and in a 3-0 draw with the Panthers and Broncos among the choices. 9 and 11. While Carolina’s comparatively weak schedule strength would prevent the Patriots from leaping ahead, New England has a worse SOS than Denver and therefore would guarantee the 10th overall selection.
Sure, all those games going on like that seem pretty unlikely, but there is a way, though. And never forget the old “Any Sunday”.
No matter what happens, however, the Patriots will end up with a higher selection than they had a long time ago: they haven’t been recruited in their teens since they chose Nate Solder in 17th overall in 2011. Their 2021 selection will therefore be the highest since 2008, when Jerod Mayo was chosen in 10th place overall. Both teams have worked well for the organization, and the hope is that the same will happen next spring – especially if you are a defender.