LAS VEGAS – It is generally easy for odds makers to post lines in most NFL games. An injury to the quarterback adds a degree of difficulty. An injury to Chiefs star Patrick Mahomes, who is among the league’s most valuable defenders, has created an unusual debate.
Mahomes’ status is a mystery after he suffered a concussion on Sunday, but the opening line in the confrontation between Buffalo and Kansas City in the AFC title game was posted anyway. The Chiefs -3 line may have been the hardest number to make this season and is obviously subject to change. This can change dramatically.
“You have to make a game like this and allow people to bet,” said DraftKings sports betting director John Avello. “It is a difficult number. I think Mahomes will play, and I think it will go up to six. If you want to place a bet and speculate, you can bet on all three knowing that it will increase a little more if he plays. “
Mahomes must go through the concussion protocol this week to play Sunday’s game. The Chiefs would be a very different team without him and veteran Chad Henne as a starter. What is the downfall of Mahomes for Henne? Let the debate begin.
Westgate SuperBook director John Murray said Buffalo will become the favorite if Mahomes is dropped, but there is a difference of opinion among his team of experts. The line can turn to Bills -3 or up to -7.
“If Mahomes is well and totally healthy, it’s Chiefs -3.5 or 4,” said Murray. “If he’s not playing, Buffalo could be a 7-point favorite. The betting public loves the accounts. “
Westgate’s first significant bet on Sunday night was $ 20,000 in Kansas City -3.
VSiN oddsmaker Vinny Magliulo said the opening line is a “conservative” number that will allow bookmakers to adjust quickly once Mahomes’ status is determined.
“This number indicates that we believe Mahomes will play and you can see that number increase,” said Magliulo. “There will be money in Kansas City even with Henne.”
The value of an initial quarterback up to the point spread has a lot to do with the quality of the backup. Magliulo is on the rise with Henne, a veteran who made important moves in the fourth quarter of the Chiefs’ 22-17 victory over the Browns on Sunday. Kansas City is not desperate for Henne.
Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are each worth about seven points for the spread. There is no injury problem in the NFC title game, with Rodgers and the Packers opening as 3.5-point favorites over Brady and the Buccaneers.
“Rodgers means more to the number from the quarterback’s perspective,” said Magliulo. “Henne was not horrible. He was well composed. You know that he will put all the representatives into practice on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Think of the reserve quarterbacks with all the other teams. Who is the most capable backup? It’s Henne. “
If Mahomes loses the conference championship game, Magliulo said he doesn’t think the Chiefs should be losing more than 3 points to the Bills.
“Was it Buffalo -7? No, ”said Magliulo. “So you are saying that Mahomes is worth 10 or 11 points? I disagree with that. My personal opinion is that I don’t see it as a 10 point difference. It can’t be much. I think Bills -3 is still high, but this is much more aligned. “
While the AFC line can be volatile – with estimates ranging from Chiefs -6 to Bills -7 – the NFC clash will be about betting volume and bidirectional action.
“I think the NFC championship could be the biggest game outside the Super Bowl ever,” said Murray. “It’s Brady against Rodgers at Lambeau Field. You couldn’t ask for a bigger game. It will be a huge crank through the roof. “
Brady went through two touchdowns and ran for one when Tampa Bay defeated New Orleans 30-20 and probably ended Drew Brees’ career. The Saints committed four turnovers, with Brees throwing three interceptions.
“The Saints kind of did that game with spins,” said Murray. “I don’t see that happening to Rodgers.”
The Packers scored a 7-point favorite in the 32-18 win over Rams. Rodgers, who jumped on Mahomes at the end of the season to become the MVP’s favorite, went through 296 yards and two touchdowns.
Brady is making his 14th trip to a game for the conference title, but this is his first on the NFC, and the Green Bay encounter will be the first post-season encounter between Brady and Rodgers.
“Brady attracts money and the Bucs continue to take a lot of money,” said Avello. “You put them against the Packers, who always make a lot of money, and it’s going to be huge.”
Matt Youmans is a senior editor at VSiN.com, The Sports Betting Network.