The Guardian
NFL conference championship pick: Brady x Rodgers and a shock from the Chiefs
Two honored veterans face off at Lambeau Field, while the best of the next generation play in Kansas City. Who gets to the Super Bowl? Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers met earlier this season and the Buccaneers emerged as winners. Photo: Mark LoMoglio / AP Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers Sunday, 3:05 pm ET / 8:05 am GMT What Buccaneers need to do to win: Surprisingly, for two quarterbacks who ruled the NFL for much of the century, there isn’t much history going on between Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers – this will only be their fourth meeting as a regular. Brady won the previous game, a 38-10 loss in week 6 of this season, when the defense plagued Rodgers all day, firing him five times. Rodgers, who has since been flawless, is unlikely to be bullied again. Therefore, Tampa Bay may have to beat the Packers in a shootout, hoping that all of their formidable offensive weapons will click at the same time. This will put pressure on Bucs reserve Aaron Stinnie, who made his first NFL debut against the Saints last week (and did very well). What Packers need to do to win: Like privateers, Packers have a weakened offensive line. He held out well against the league’s best defense, the Rams, last week, but Los Angeles’ biggest threat, Aaron Donald, was hampered by a rib injury. Rodgers has been so good this year that it’s hard to see him being defeated by the Buccaneers if he gets enough protection. Some have argued that the cold Lambeau Field will give the Packers a big advantage over a warm climate team like Tampa Bay. But Tom Brady played a lot of games in the New England winter and it seemed to work well for him. Main player: Rob Gronkowski, tight end, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Gronk’s best days are behind him and he is no longer the unstoppable force of a few years ago. Therefore, his importance in this game does not lie so much in his skills, but against whom he faces. If Packers have an obvious weakness, it’s linebackers. Look for Brady to return to a family safety blanket and find Gronk in the middle of the field while the game continues. Prediction: Packers. The Buccaneers struggled to get rid of 7-9 Washington in the wildcard round and were helped by a series of Drew Brees twists against the Saints last week. Brady and his new teammates freeze much more than they did at the beginning of the season, but they are not yet the threat they should be, due to their talent. I don’t think they are at a level where they can beat Rodgers and Davante Adams this time. Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs Sunday, 6:40 pm ET / 11:40 pm GMT Patrick Mahomes is the current Super Bowl MVP. Photo: Jason Behnken / AP What the Bills need to do to win: The Chiefs can do so much damage, so quickly, through the air with names like Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill that encouraging them to go to the racing game, perhaps for not packing the box is an option. Josh Allen has evolved beyond recognition in a short space of time, partly because of the variety of weapons he has, from the almost impossible to cover Stefon Diggs to Cole Beasley and the tight end Dawson Knox. The Bills will need to maintain that chemistry on Sunday. What the Chiefs need to do to win: As mentioned above, Allen’s progress this season has been extraordinary and he is no longer the turnover machine he was. But he still makes mistakes and the Chiefs’ outstanding defensive talents, whether Tyrann Matthieu or Chris Jones, are capable of forcing him to make mistakes. If the Bills manage to get the Chiefs back to the racing game, Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s physical condition, returning from an injury, can be revealing. Main player: Patrick Mahomes, defender, Kansas City Chiefs. Mahomes is the best player in the NFL, so he is the most important player in any game he plays. But its impact on Sunday seems particularly revealing. Mahomes was forced to give up last week’s victory over the Browns due to a concussion – and he has been limited in practice – but it is almost certain to start. The question is which version of Mahomes plays. The concussion does not seem to have been very damaging (at least in the short term), but more worrying for the Chiefs is the fact that Mahomes is also suffering from turf toe. Mahomes is no Lamar Jackson, he will not burn you for 50 meters, but his mobility and ability to win the race are an important part of his game. Forecast: accounts. A fully capable Mahomes beats Allen 90% of the time. But a limited Mahomes, which has been very good instead of great in its recent games, is a different proposition. The prolonged effects of the concussion and its reduced mobility will leave this to the Bills … only.