It will take a long time, seven years before the COVID-19 pandemic ends worldwide, if the distribution of the vaccine continues at its current pace, a Bloomberg calculation shows.
The media, which said it had built the “largest database” of COVID-19 inoculations given worldwide, analyzed the numbers and found that it could take more than a decade to achieve collective immunity if the distribution does not increase to two vaccine doses.
Dr. Anthony Fauci said that 70-85 percent of the population will need the vaccine for collective immunity and, although the United States is on track to achieve that goal by the new year in 2022, countries like Canada can take ten years in your current pace.
More than 119 million doses have been distributed worldwide, but the Bloomberg tracker shows that some countries, mostly wealthy, western, are reaching 75% coverage much faster than others.
For example, Israel is on track to see 75% coverage by spring, but Portugal could take four years, China seven years and Latvia almost nine years to achieve herd immunity if vaccine distributions do not change.
The calculations are, of course, “volatile,” explained Bloomberg, especially with the implementation that took place just a few months ago and is still marked by supply disruptions.
Canada’s vaccination rate has been cut in half recently, after the country faced shipment delays, but as long as their contracts to buy more doses per person than any other country moves forward, they won’t be stuck in the pandemic hell for a decade.
The vehicle noted that the pace is expected to accelerate around the world as more and more jabs become available – they pointed to the major vaccine manufacturing centers in India and Mexico and said production was just beginning and only a third of countries have started vaccine campaigns.
Bloomberg’s calculator is based on two doses for full vaccination and will be adjusted as soon as the vaccine manufactured by Johnson & Johnson, which requires only one dose, becomes available. Although the vaccines were not approved for children, Bloomberg included children in its calculations because they can also be infected and transmit the virus.
The calculator does not take into account any level of natural immunity experienced by those who have already had the virus – the CDC said that some immunity is offered after an infection, but it is unclear how long it lasts.
A Mount Sinai study published last week on the prepress server MedRxiv found that reinfection is “common” among young people, especially those who had very mild cases or no symptoms when they had the bug. The researchers involved urged governments to include young people previously infected in the distribution of vaccines.
Another study published this week suggested that those who already had the virus may need only one dose of the vaccine.