A fascinating – and sometimes chaotic – NFL regular season is in the books, and the NFL postseason is coming … complete with a few extra playoff teams this year (hi, Bears and Colts). On the opening weekend, we will evaluate each match using our Elo ratings – which track the current form of each team, with adjustments to the quality of each starting defender – and we will also identify the phases of the game where each team was better (and worse) ) according to the expected ESPN (EPA) points this season. Here is our guide to the good, the bad and what you should see in each game in the wild card round:
Tape tale: No. 2 Buffalo vs. No. 7 Indianapolis
1:05 pm ET Saturday
| Buffalo | Category | Indianapolis |
|---|---|---|
| 13-3 | Record | 11-5 |
| 6th | Timeline strength | 20th |
| 1725 | Link with superior QB | 1597 |
| 2nd | League classification | 8th |
| Josh Allen | Starting QB | Philip Rivers |
| 1st | QB Elo rank | Day 16 |
| 3rd | Supporting cast of QB | 5th |
| Day 16 | Defense Medium QB Elo | 9th |
| Offense | Higher EPA strength | Pass defense |
| Offense | Greater EPA weakness | Offense |
| 75.5% | FiveThirtyEight forecast | 24.5% |
Saturday’s biggest mismatch shows the red-hot Bills hosting a Colts team that needed help in Buffalo – when he crushed Miami on Sunday – made it to the playoffs. The Bills have won six consecutive games and nine of their last 10 games with an average of almost two touchdowns per game. QB Josh Allen finished the regular season in third place (behind Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes) on ESPN’s Total QBR, and he has never qualified better in his career than in recent weeks, according to our QB Elo metric. So, while Indy quarterback Philip Rivers had a decent year, he and the Colts cannot match Buffalo’s offensive firepower. But one thing the Colts have is the superior defense – eighth in the EPA, to number 16 in Buffalo – which offers them the best plan for a comeback. Playing in Orchard Park, however, the Bills are big favorites here, with a 76 percent chance of making it through to the second round. Link Propagation: Buffalo -8
Tape tale: No. 3 Seattle vs. No. 6 LA Rams
4:40 pm ET Saturday
| Seattle | Category | Los Angeles |
|---|---|---|
| 12-4 | Record | 10-6 |
| Day 16 | Timeline strength | 23rd |
| 1615 | Link with superior QB | 1511 |
| 7th | League classification | 10th |
| Russell Wilson | Starting QB | Jared Goff✚ |
| 13th | QB Elo rank | 20th |
| 8th | Supporting cast of QB | 6th |
| 13th | Defense Medium QB Elo | 1st |
| Offense | Higher EPA strength | Run defense |
| Pass defense | Greater EPA weakness | Special Teams |
| 72.6% | FiveThirtyEight forecast | 27.4% |
If both teams were at full strength, this would be a convincing battle of strengths against strengths and weaknesses against weaknesses. Seattle’s attack ranks fifth in the EPA, but LA’s defense is first; meanwhile, the Rams ‘attack is 19th, but the Seahawks’ defense is 22nd. In dividing the series of the season, we saw the weak link of each team raising its performance on the way to victory. But the biggest factor here is the health of Rams QB Jared Goff, who may not recover of your recent thumb surgery in time to play. Although Goff is not a big passer, Los Angeles’ probability of victory drops 18 percentage points if reserve John Wolford is forced to start again. The low-scoring revenue that Wolford followed to win in Week 17 is unlikely to be sustainable against Russell Wilson and company, which helps to account for Seattle’s high chances. Link Propagation: Seattle -7
Tape tale: No. 4 Washington vs. No. 5 Tampa Bay
8:15 pm ET Saturday
| Washington | Category | Tampa Bay |
|---|---|---|
| 7-9 | Record | 11-5 |
| 31st | Timeline strength | 12th |
| 1477 | Elo Rating | 1642 |
| 19th | League classification | 6th |
| Alex Smith | Starting QB | Tom Brady |
| 28th | QB Elo rank | 7th |
| 14th | Supporting cast of QB | 7th |
| 2nd | Defense Medium QB Elo | 10th |
| Pass defense | Higher EPA strength | Run defense |
| Offense | Greater EPA weakness | Special Teams |
| 29.1% | FiveThirtyEight forecast | 70.9% |
Although things could have been even worse, NFC East surrendered only the second 7-9 team to win a Washington-style division. Their reward is a playoff game at home, yes, but against a Tampa Bay team that was among the hottest in the NFL last month. At 43 this season, Tom Brady posted his best Total CBR since 2016, leading the league’s fourth best pass attack by the EPA. And the Bucs’ defense was even better, taking third place in the overall EPA and in the top six against the race and the pass. (Which was a big reason for Tampa’s fourth best point differential in the league this year.) The football team has a great defense of its own (No. 4 in the EPA), which may help to slow Brady down a bit, but Alex Smith and Washington The attack must fight hard to score against the Buccaneers. Our model gives Tampa Bay a 71 percent chance of bringing Brady much closer to his seventh Super Bowl ring. Link Propagation: Tampa Bay -6
Tape tale: No. 4 Tennessee vs. No. 5 Baltimore
1:05 pm ET on Sunday
| Tennessee | Category | Baltimore |
|---|---|---|
| 11-5 | Record | 11-5 |
| 24th | Timeline strength | 29th |
| 1585 | Link with superior QB | 1664 |
| 11th | League classification | 5th |
| Ryan Tannehill | Starting QB | Lamar Jackson |
| 9th | QB Elo rank | 4th |
| Day 15 | Supporting cast of QB | 9th |
| 26th | Defense Medium QB Elo | 22nd |
| Offense | Higher EPA strength | Offense |
| Pass defense | Greater EPA weakness | Offense |
| 42.6% | FiveThirtyEight forecast | 57.4% |
This is easily the best and most attractive wild card weekend showdown. Tennessee overturned Baltimore’s fairytale season in last year’s playoffs, and the Titans won an OT thriller when the two teams met in November. So there is a lot of history here. And although they play in different styles, both teams have an unusually intense offensive profile, ending at numbers 1 and 2 in run yards per game this season. On paper, the big difference between the Titans and the Ravens can simply boil down to defense, where Baltimore ranks sixth in the EPA and Tennessee 27th this year. Then again, it didn’t seem to matter much in the previous two duels – when the Titans’ defense drastically surpassed that of the Ravens, +1.4 EPA per game to -12.1. In these disputes, we saw Tennessee jump to a significant advantage and overcome a significant deficit, so the Ravens have yet to discover the formula for defeating their enemy. But our model still likes them for the victory on the road on Sunday, with a 57 percent chance of finally winning their first victory in the Lamar Jackson Era playoffs. Link Propagation: Baltimore -2
Tape tale: No. 2 New Orleans vs. No. 7 Chicago
4:40 pm ET on Sunday
| New Orleans | Category | Chicago |
|---|---|---|
| 12-4 | Record | 8-8 |
| 13th | Timeline strength | 21st |
| 1730 | Link with superior QB | 1515 |
| 1st | League classification | 14th |
| Drew Brees | Starting QB | Mitchell Trubisky |
| 8th | QB Elo rank | Day 17 |
| 1st | Supporting cast of QB | Day 17 |
| 3rd | Defense Medium QB Elo | 8th |
| Offense | Higher EPA strength | Run defense |
| Special Teams | Greater EPA weakness | Offense |
| 85.0% | FiveThirtyEight forecast | 15.0% |
In the AFC, an 8-8 record would have ended three games outside of the postseason. But in the NFC, Chicago won a playoff spot in the tie over the equally mediocre Arizona Cardinals. Now, the Bears must travel to New Orleans and face a Saints team that looks as scary as anyone at the paper conference. How can the Bears solve the problem? EPA’s seventh-ranked Chicago defense could pose a threat to Drew Brees and the Saints’ attack, especially if the Swiss army knife is Alvin Kamara It’s unavailable due to a positive COVID-19 test. (Although New Orleans did well without him in week 17.) QB in trouble Mitchell Trubisky has put four above-average games together in his last five games, perhaps sustaining his best playing period since reaching the Pro Bowl in 2018. Nick Bears led by Bellows they even faced the Saints in week 8. But the Saints, who had the best SRS in the entire league during the regular season, probably have a lot of talent for a twist to be much more than a far-fetched notion here. Elo gives New Orleans a comfortable 85 percent chance of moving forward to face the NFC’s second worst remaining seed. Link Propagation: New Orleans -12
Tape tale: No. 3 Pittsburgh vs. No. 6 Cleveland
8:15 pm ET on Sunday
| Pittsburgh | Category | Cleveland |
|---|---|---|
| 12-4 | Record | 11-5 |
| Day 27 | Timeline strength | 30th |
| 1587 | Link with superior QB | 1550 |
| 9th | League classification | 12th |
| Ben Roethlisberger | Starting QB | Baker Mayfield |
| 10th | QB Elo rank | 18th |
| 12th | Supporting cast of QB | 11th |
| 5th | Defense Medium QB Elo | 21st |
| Pass defense | Higher EPA strength | Offense |
| Offense | Greater EPA weakness | Pass defense |
| 61.9% | FiveThirtyEight forecast | 38.1% |
Congratulations to the Browns – their fights defied all logic, but now they are heading for the playoffs for the first time in 18 years. And a victory in the opening of the postseason against rival Steelers is not out of reach. Although Pittsburgh impressed with a lap against the Colts on their last royal tour – then took a much-needed week off – their end-of-season form bears little resemblance to the version that brought Cleveland 38-7 down in week 6. In all, Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers finished the regular season in 22nd position on the EPA offensive, with Baker Mayfield and the Browns much better (11th). That and Mayfield’s recent enhanced game extension – four above-average Elo starts in five games – offer hope that Cleveland has the firepower to beat Pittsburgh. But the Steelers’ defense is excellent, placing second in the overall EPA and first specifically against the pass; any deep playoff play for them will be driven primarily by that side of the ball. Cleveland cannot say the same, with only the EPA’s 26th best defense. (And then there’s the issue of Browns coach Kevin Stefanski not being available for the game after testing positive for COVID-19.) All of that is enough for Pittsburgh to be the favorite here; our model gives Steelers a 62% chance of holding the Browns at home in the rematch. Link Propagation: Pittsburgh -3½
Check out our latest NFL predictions.