Ontario data shows that the decline in coronavirus cases has stabilized, and postponed procedures are a major concern

The latest modeling data from the Ontario government suggests that progress in reducing coronavirus cases has stalled and postponed medical procedures should have a strong impact on the health care system.

“The decline in community cases and test positivity has stabilized. Cases are increasing in most public health facilities as we see mobility increase, ”Dr. Adalsteinn Brown, co-chairman of Ontario’s COVID-19 Science Advisory Table, told reporters on Thursday afternoon.

“The worrying variants continue to spread across Ontario and our ability to control the rate of spread will determine whether we go back to normal or face a third wave of infection.”

The authorities said again that the coming weeks will be “critical” in determining what restrictions will apply for the summer, noting that masking and detachment restrictions will be needed to control the spread of more contagious variants of COVID-19.

“We know exactly what to do,” he said.

“Although it is difficult, and I know that everyone is at their limits, a little more discipline with masking and detachment will help to reduce cases.”

Projections estimate that in the next two to three weeks, COVID-19 rates may grow up to 8,000 new cases per day in the worst case scenario, depending on the spread of the variants.

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If public health measures are followed and restrictions are put in place to contain any sudden spikes, projections indicate that the rate can be maintained at just under 2,000 cases per day.

“There is a lot of uncertainty now, and with that, a lot of risk and a lot of danger,” said Brown.

If case rates go up again, he warned that there is still a danger that Ontario’s hospital system will be overburdened.

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Even in an optimistic scenario, which predicts a “small” increase in capacity, Brown said the province could still receive 400 patients occupying intensive care beds per week.

“It is important to note that this is not (just) a small increase,” he said.

“This is an increase over an already worn out system that creates a challenge in accessing care.”

The COVID-19 Scientific Advisory Table has sounded the alarm about deferred care and missed screening for other chronic diseases.

“There will be a substantial and prolonged increase in the need for care in all sectors. Our actions now will really determine our ability to access care later, ”said Brown.

For example, the presentation highlighted an earlier “substantial” decline in cancer screening tests that will result in “long-term consequences for cancer outcomes”.

Looking at the province’s surgical portfolio, the Table reported that there were no surgical cases on March 15, 2020. The total jumped to about 75,000 cases in May, and that was when the surgical restart program started. In February, there were 227,410 surgical cases accumulated in arrears.

However, there was encouraging news contained in the province’s data.

Brown said COVID-19 vaccinations in long-term care facilities continue to bear fruit with the number of cases of residents and staff decreasing. He also said that deaths have declined with a reported resident death in almost a week.

– With Canadian Press files

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