If you missed the news overnight, Tampa Bay Rays is doing what it does, sending the initial controlled pitcher Blake Snell to the Padres for a package of prospects. Michael covered the trade and the immediate implications here.
There are a few things I would like to address this morning to end this exchange of perspective related to the Cubs.
First, there are the obvious things about Yu Darvish. On the one hand, it now seems highly plausible that the reason Darvish’s rumors have intensified in recent days was to put some pressure on the Rays to do something about Snell. Financially, having to think that the Fathers would always have preferred Snell, much cheaper, so the pressure in that direction makes more sense than, for example, the Cubs and Fathers were getting close, and then the Rays dived without warning and said: “Hey, what about Snell ?!”
Let’s imagine, however, that the Fathers and Cubs were actually talking about Darvish, as reported, and we now know that a group of potential customers that the Fathers were willing to negotiate for a controlled and impactful pitcher. Before comparing the relative value of Snell and Darvish, let’s just comment on the prospect’s package as a theoretical return from Darvish. Sounds nice? I wouldn’t say it’s oppressive, but it’s very strong:
⇒ Luis Patiño is a first-tier pitcher adjacent to the big league (perspective of pitchers between the 10-15 most important years in all baseball).
⇒ Cole Wilcox was a first-round talent in this year’s draft that many believed to be insignificant, but the Fathers caught him in the third round with a $ 3.3 million bonus (19th place in the overall slot). It was immediately considered top ten in the loaded Padres system.
⇒ Blake Hunt was an overlot author in the 2017 draft who has had helium since, and is now one of the top 100 types of at least one service. He just turned 22 and will probably be in AA this year.
⇒ Francisco Mejia is a well-known name, having been one of Cleveland’s top 30 players for a long time, but he struggled a lot last season. Most still think the club will play the bigs, but at 25, your chances of establishing yourself as a regular receiver are decreasing. He’s a post-advertising guy. A good one. But a post-campaign guy.
This is a strong package. That doesn’t leave you jaw-dropping (mainly because I don’t think we can say for sure which prospects of caliber Wilcox and Hunt are still outsiders), but I doubt anyone in the industry would say that the Rays didn’t get a good value.
… But would you take that to Darvish if it were the Cubs? It is not an obvious yes or no to me. Again, that would depend a lot on how you felt about Wilcox and Hunt, which is so hard to know after a year like 2020. It would also depend on whether you thought Mejia’s bat and glove could play, say, on left field. It is close to me as a return to Darvish. The heart strings, however, are not enough to make me pull the trigger. Maybe that’s why the Cubs didn’t do it. We will probably never know how close things really came.
OK, but here’s the related question you should explore: Darvish really have both commercial value and Snell? Any less? More?
Well, at first glance, I’d say it’s a very close question – closer than Snell’s 2018 Cy Young can make you think. Since then, he has seen a small drop in speed, dealt with shoulder fatigue, an elbow problem that required minor surgery and a broken toe. It launched only 157.0 entries in total between 2019 and 2020, which is partly a pandemic, partly a question of durability. We know about your problem with the third time through the postseason order, and your results have been merely “very good” for the past two years. Snell, 28, is expected to earn $ 41 million over the next three years.
In pure performance, Darvish has been the very, very superior pitcher for the past two seasons. And, hey, it matters a lot! The marks, however, are quite obvious. Darvish is six years older and has also dealt with injury problems. Darvish will earn $ 62 million over the next three years. Darvish has a list of 12 banned teams that may have impacted things and is a modest addition to its value.
Honestly, I think the two are very close in total. Snell has youth and a much lower salary on his side. Darvish is the guy you prefer, alone, on the hill. Given the financial situation of the game, gut says that Snell probably has more commercial value. But it is probably closer than people think, and close enough that our exercise in thinking of this trade as a “for Darvish” package is not useless.
So what does the Snell trade say about the commercial value of Darvish in the market? Well, I would say it confirms that three years as a stud launcher is still extremely valuable. Then that’s it. I don’t think we can underestimate the dollars either, however. Times are tight enough that many teams are not adding a penny to the payroll right now. So asking a team to take a $ 62 million guarantee, even for a stallion, is a lot. Now, you’ve also removed one of the most aggressive buyers on the market.
For me, Snell’s business confirms that a guy like Darvish has a huge level of commercial value – even in this prospect-obsessed climate – but that doesn’t mean that Cubs can, can or should really trade him.
As for other implications related to the Cubs here, there is the fact that an NL contender, not in the Cubs division, received a significant boost. At the end of the day, it matters just in case you end up facing that team in the postseason (a thing of relatively small odds that is hardly worth considering), or if you’re fighting that team for a local Wild Card . Given that we still don’t know what the 2021 playoff format will be, I won’t insist on that much. Oh, too, NL Central is going to suck, so there will be a lot of extra wins for the “best” teams in Central in 2021.
Finally, just a comment on the nature of the rays. This is what they do. It works for them. Develop a stallion, extend the stallion, exchange him and his contract for more potential customers. Rinse, repeat. I can’t talk about how Rays fans can feel about it, but I’ll say it bothers me that Rays don’t complement their team with short-term free agent additions to really be even better. Likewise, it bothers me that the Cubs were unable or unwilling to do these kinds of deals – imagine if you could periodically exchange a guy for a substantial return, but also be able to supplement your team annually with a considerable payroll (notwithstanding 2021)? Do it three years ago and maybe you were not facing the situation you are facing now?
Anyway. In the end, what I learned from this trade with regard to Cubs: a Darvish trade is now much less likely, Darvish is extremely valuable (for Cubs, not just “the market”), and I am more ambivalent about whether o The chicks could / should / would have done this same trade for Darvish.