Now, see, was that so difficult?
Three days ago he warned that he would not advise vaccinated people to go out to eat or go to the cinema, not because it is dangerous for them, but because it is potentially dangerous for the majority of the population that has not yet been immunized and with whom they would be mixing in these. public spaces. Vaccinated people * can * still spread the virus, even if they are spreading it less than an unvaccinated person.
Certainly, although, in the name of giving people who have fulfilled their duty by receiving the vaccine a suspension of the misery of pandemic isolation, we could encourage those who have been immunized to meet with others who have been immunized. Okay, yes, be careful with strangers, as they may still be vulnerable to infection, but if you know for sure that all participants in a future social engagement have been vaccinated, why the hell shouldn’t this engagement continue?
Last night, in an interview with CNN, Fauci agreed. Why shouldn’t I? “Even if it is not supported by data,” he said of vaccinated people socializing safely, “it is supported by common sense.” Which is true, and also (finally!) The right message in giving Americans on the fence about getting their injections a behavioral incentive to dive. Do you want to have a short dinner with 8 to 10 close friends? No problems. You know what to do.
Skip here to 5:30 of the clip and watch:
Dr. Anthony Fauci urges all Americans to get vaccinated as soon as it is their turn, promising that there will be “benefits both socially and personally, and from the point of view of public health”. https://t.co/4hzSawki9u pic.twitter.com/FAmROWkwPm
– CNN (@CNN) February 26, 2021
The key point through the Daily Wire:
“I am vaccinated, my wife vaccinated, my daughters vaccinated,” he continued. “Before vaccination, if they wanted to visit you, they would have to be quarantined for a while, get tested, wear a mask. What we’re saying now, even if it’s not backed up by data, is backed by the common sense that if you have two people vaccinated and they want to get together, whether they are family members or friends you know, they are vaccinated, you can start taking individually, although the risk is not zero. The risk becomes extremely low when both parties are vaccinated. So, let’s start seeing people saying, ‘Hey, the more people get vaccinated, I can have dinner with my family member who comes’ ”.
This sounds suspiciously like Fauci saying, “Whatever the CDC formally recommends, we know that vaccinated people will get together and we know it is safe.” So, here is your unofficial guidance. For the first time, experts are not selling less than the vaccine.
Coincidentally, he said this about 12 hours after the University of Cambridge released new data showing that even a dose of the Pfizer vaccine reduces the risk of transmission substantially. We already had evidence from Israel that a single dose dramatically reduces the chances of symptomatic disease, but the Cambridge data suggests that it also reduces the chance of even asymptomatic infection:
The findings at Addenbrooke’s Hospital in Cambridge indicated 75 percent protection against Covid-19.
The results also point to a four-fold reduction in the risk of asymptomatic Covid infection among healthcare professionals who have been vaccinated for more than 12 days – suggesting that the first dose will significantly reduce the spread of the virus …
Dr. Mike Weekes, an infectious disease specialist in the medical department at Cambridge University, who co-led the study, hailed the findings as “great news”.
He said: “The Pfizer vaccine not only provides protection against illness from SARS-CoV-2, but it also helps prevent infection by reducing the potential for the virus to be transmitted to others. “
This is what Fauci means by common sense in allowing vaccinated people to socialize. If everyone is protected not only from disease, but also from infections, the benefits for the mental well-being of letting them resume a degree of normality far outweigh any risk of transmission that may arise from the encounter.
It is worth watching the full interview if you have time, as he is interested in hammering the point that people should not wait for Cadillac vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) if the only one available locally is a Lincoln (Johnson & Johnson). Pfizer and Moderna appear to be slightly more effective than J&J, but ultimately, nothing is more effective at preventing infection than collective immunity. The faster we get there, the more lives will be saved, which means that applying * some * vaccine to as many people as possible as quickly as possible is the ideal strategy to limit the risk of each individual, even if not all of these vaccines are equally powerful. A public health researcher built a computer model to test this theory, in fact, and ended up feeling confident about it:
Consider an example: let’s say the United States was able to vaccinate one million people a day, with a vaccine that was 90 percent effective (about what was happening so far) and continued until 60 percent of the population was fully vaccinated. At that rate, it would take about six and a half months.
For comparison, consider a scenario where people are fully vaccinated at the fastest rate of 1.5 million per day with a vaccine of less than 70 percent effectiveness until 60 percent of the population is fully vaccinated. At this faster rate, it would take about four months.
We found that this faster scenario with the less effective vaccine could end up averaging more than 1.38 million more cases, more than 51,000 more hospitalizations and more than 6,000 more deaths than the slowest and most vaccinated scenario most effective vaccine. This highlights the importance of vaccinating as many of the population as possible as soon as possible to slow the spread of the virus.
Anyone who waits for a Cadillac because he thinks that a Lincoln is not exactly on a par is putting himself and those around him at unnecessary risk. The best protection we all have, including from scary variants that have yet to be developed, is to block any and all vector of transmission as quickly as possible and deny the virus additional opportunities to mutate. Each new vaccine that hits the market makes it easier. Coincidentally, the FDA’s expert advisory panel is meeting this afternoon to give final approval to J&J before the agency’s approval this weekend.
By the way, look at what Fauci said at one point about the Johnson & Johnson single dose. This * can * become a double doser eventually, especially if a new variant starts, as one of the strategies for dealing with a dangerous new strain is simply to “bombard” with antibodies. Stay tuned.