It’s time to add the state of Ohio to the conversation for a 1-seed selection Sunday. The Buckeyes went to Iowa on Thursday, hit 14 points out of 3 and left with an 89-85 victory over the Hawkeyes.
They now have a resume that rivals anyone in the country outside of the first two well-defined teams: Gonzaga and Baylor.
Seed-1 in most brackets designed in the past few weeks included a rotating cast of characters alongside the Zags and Bears. Villanova has been a staple, but the Wildcats have convincingly lost to St. John’s. Houston had thrown himself into the mix, but the Cougars suffered a shocking defeat in East Carolina on Wednesday night. Michigan hasn’t played in two weeks and it’s unclear what the Wolverines will look like after the COVID-19 break – or when they will play again. Texas and Iowa also had a few weeks on the front lines, but the Longhorns and Hawkeyes lost three of the last four.
After Thursday’s victory in Iowa City, Chris Holtmann’s Buckeyes certainly have a path to a seed 1, and it can be said that they control their own destiny as a result.
The state of Ohio now has the highest number of wins in Quadrant 1 in the country, with seven, including road wins against Illinois, Iowa and Wisconsin. There is a Rutgers victory and a December victory over UCLA in Cleveland. The large number of quality wins compares favorably with the other candidates: Villanova has two wins in Q1, while Iowa, Houston, Texas and Michigan each have three. The teams closest to the State of Ohio (in addition to Baylor and Gonzaga) in the category of first quarter victories are Illinois and Alabama, with five each.
According to the ESPN Stats & Information survey, the Buckeyes’ five wins against teams in the AP Top 25 this season are the biggest in Division I, as well as their four road wins over the AP Top 25 teams.
Entering Thursday, the state of Ohio was No. 12 on NET, No. 12 on BPI and No. 10 on KenPom. The Buckeyes were 7th in ESPN’s record strength metric, which measures a team’s curriculum. And they will rise to each of these metrics after defeating Iowa.
The state of Ohio has one of the best attacks on college basketball, with confrontational problems EJ Liddell and Justice Sueing causing defense problems with their versatility. Duane Washington escaped his fall on Thursday, and Justin Ahrens proved to be a real incentive for the Buckeyes in the Big Ten game with his outside shots. Kyle Young is a glue guy at the front who breaks offensive glass, and Zed Key is an old-fashioned back-to-the-basket player who is effective against opponents with legitimate post players. CJ Walker’s return from injury solidified the position of point guard; he had nine assists and only one comeback against Iowa on Thursday. In other words, Buckeyes check the “eyesight test” box as well.
There is still a long way to go to Sunday’s selection – but that also means that the State of Ohio has many chances remaining to further improve its profile. Among others, the Buckeyes have yet to face Michigan, while the second games against Iowa and Illinois remain on schedule. But all three of these teams have to come to Columbus, where Ohio State lost just one game this season and lost just two last season.
We are not expecting the Buckeyes to run the table to win 1-seed, but they probably won’t need to; given the unpredictability of college basketball this season, it is unlikely that anyone other than Gonzaga and Baylor (and perhaps Drake) will be undefeated the rest of the way.
Ohio has not received enough national attention this season, but Thursday’s victory will make it difficult to ignore the Buckeyes as a legitimate 1-seed threat in the future.