After last week’s crushing defeat to the Georgia Bulldogs, the Gamecocks are traveling to Lexington for … ANOTHER night game this Saturday against the Kentucky Wildcats.
The USC lost five consecutive games against the number en route to where it currently stands at 4-5. Gamecocks are 2-7 in a straight line.
Kentucky comes to this clash as demoralized as South Carolina, with the last two games being defeated by 84 points combined. They also haven’t won more than 10 points in four of their last five games.
Having gone through 182 combined yards in these last two competitions as well, we can have a back battle in our hands this weekend.
As for the visiting team, South Carolina continues to play without many important players, but the change in the quarterback has resulted in at least a moderate success in recent weeks.
Despite being a confrontation between SEC East’s last two, the Cocks still manage to lose 11.5 points in this contest, according to VegasInsider.com. The line has shifted 1.5 points in favor of South Carolina since opening.
ESPN’s FPI gives Gamecocks a 32% chance of claiming victory.
The up / down is defined at 48 points.
Why was the line defined in this number?
Maybe because South Carolina didn’t win at night all year?
Are they on the road?
Didn’t they give gamblers no reason to take them?
Did they lose five in a row against the spread?
Is the talent on both sides of the ball minimal?
Have they beaten Kentucky once in the past six years?
One of those reasons would have been enough for an ordinary person to bet against the USC, and I gave him six.
Vegas has to keep increasing the lines if you want someone to bet on the Cocks, and they are doing just that in this game.
What will have to happen for Gamecocks to cover?
Kentucky, fortunately, hasn’t been the best team in the defense of the race, so I suggest going with that. At the same time, if Kentucky knows it’s coming because it’s one of South Carolina’s only strengths, it can be more difficult to accomplish.
It’s exactly the same story if you switch teams too.
Kentucky hates passing the ball and leans heavily into the racing game and, as we know, the USC is also unable to defend the race.
To cover, the creation of turnovers will be a must. It is also a real possibility, since Kentucky quarterback Terry Wilson has turned him over three times in the past two games.
It would also be nice if Luke Doty had a good enough day in the air that the race was not so predictable.
What is the best bet?
At this point, you had me in Kentucky.
I expect a Wildcat win somewhere between 14 and 24 points.
Blind betting against Gamecocks could be the change at this point.