Coming from another difficult defeat, the Gamecocks are gearing up for another prime time fight, this time against Ole Miss Rebels in Oxford.
After four wins against the spread earlier in the year, South Carolina fell twice in a row to where it is now at 4-2. Invert these numbers and that’s where they go straight up.
Ole Miss is coming from a morale-boosting victory against Vanderbilt, where they saw quarterback Matt Corral move to 412 yards and six touchdowns while South Carolina … never mind.
According to VegasInsider.com, Cocks are currently 11-point dogs, an increase of four points from the opening line of seven.
ESPN’s FPI gives South Carolina a 32.6% chance of victory.
The over / under is set at 70 points, which appears to be the third highest line of the week, alongside Alabama / LSU and Temple / Central Florida.
Why was the line defined in this number?
Wow. It seems that all confidence in Gamecocks has been lost.
Hell, they were predicted to get closer to the Aggies.
Yes, the Cocks seem to be in shambles, but seeing a 2-4 team favored by double digits over other 2-4 teams honestly confuses me.
I think their mindset was that Ole Miss is going to put a lot of points and South Carolina just won’t have the firepower to keep him around (which is fair).
I would THINK that after two embarrassing defeats and Muschamp’s training for his job, the USC would finally play hard on this one, but at this point I’m really not sure.
Historically, this series is dead, even with eight wins per piece, but South Carolina won the last three, the most recent being a 48-44 shootout in Oxford two years ago.
Giving the Rebels some bonus points for being at home also makes sense, but that phrase is still an insult if you are in that Gamecock locker room.
What will have to happen for Gamecocks to cover?
To put it best, they don’t have to be a drug … and Ryan Hilinski has to be out there.
I don’t know exactly why, but when Hilinski entered the Texas A&M game in the fourth period, the attack lightened and was playing for him more strongly than for Hill.
This team needs to light a fire to get through this obstacle and I believe that a change in the quarterback will solve the problem.
That is only part of the plan, however.
This team needs to bring back the defense we saw against Auburn. Jaycee Horn needs to be the point of disconnection that we saw a few weeks ago.
Elijah Moore has been Matt Corral’s favorite target, and his production at least has to be limited.
Their racing game also cannot be ignored because they were also successful on the ground. Jerrion Ealy has run for at least 95 yards in three of his last four games, and he is not even the only lap to fear in that attack.
But the best path to victory? Turnovers.
Corral loves to throw straws, having hit nine in the year. If Gamecocks win the turnover battle, they may have a chance to cover.
What is the best bet?
I may be a clown for saying that, but I can’t leave all those points on the table.
I see that this is a fun game with many goals.
South Carolina will not lose three consecutive games.
I am predicting a five point win in South Carolina to a five point loss in South Carolina.