Credit: Jacob Norlund via Flickr
The chances of a winter storm impacting Minnesota later this week are increasing, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).
What is still unclear is how much snow the storm system will be able to unpack and where the worst conditions will be, but the NWS is advising Minnesota residents who have travel plans for Thursday or Friday to keep an eye on the forecast. due to the potential for dangerous weather.
“From Wednesday night to Friday it has become increasingly interesting, as it seems likely that we will receive accumulated precipitation. Several issues still exist in the forecast regarding the time, type and amount of precipitation”, explains the forecast discussion at the Twin Cities office NWS.
Credit: NWS Twin Cities
At this point, the NWS is suggesting that precipitation could start on Thursday morning in the form of rain, a mixture of winter or freezing rain, and then change to snow on Thursday afternoon.
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“This situation will be monitored closely, as the freezing rain is very dangerous and would occur during the morning trip”, says the discussion about the forecast.
You can see this scenario unfolding in the latest simulation of the European computer model. In the GIF below, different shades of purple indicate a mixture or freezing precipitation, while blue indicates all snow.
It is also worth noting that the European model is just one of many that the NWS uses to create its forecast, and other models, including the American and NAM models, are not aggressive, as the European model is to bring most of the storm and precipitation in the heart of Minnesota.
If the storm brings impacts as the European model suggests, it could be a powerful winter storm.
“I am concerned that near-snow conditions may develop in western Minnesota if this storm system intensifies as expected on Thursday and Friday,” said Novak Weather. “I wouldn’t be surprised if significant snow fell across much of the Upper Midwest, including the twin cities.”
Again, the amount of snow that will be associated with this storm system remains unclear, but the NWS Duluth office believes that the greatest amounts may be in northern Minnesota.
“The heaviest snow is expected on Thursday night and early Friday, with the highest snow volumes expected in the far north of Minnesota. The snow will end from west to east on Friday night on Friday, with Lake Effect Snow persisting until Saturday, “said Duluth NWS on Tuesday morning.
Novak Time will provide a new update on Tuesday afternoon. Keep an eye on our Weather MN blog for updates.