The number of weekly coronavirus cases is expected to remain stable in South Carolina, despite the significant increase in the number of tests completed each week.
As the tests became more widespread, the state health department can better assess the prevalence of COVID-19 in South Carolina.
“This is great news,” said Dr. Ed O’Bryan, executive director of MUSC Health Solutions.
It is more encouraging, he explained, that 1 percent of 2,000 people test positive, than 10 percent of 200 people test positive, although the number of positive tests diagnosed in each scenario is the same.
“We are seeing this positive percentage,” said O’Bryan.
In mid-April, the percentage of positive tests, among all tests performed in the state, averaged over 10%. In early May, it averaged over 5%. This week, the trend is less than 4%.
“When the positive percentage is high, it can indicate that there are not enough tests being carried out to capture how much disease exists in the community and the tests can be focused on more seriously ill people,” according to the SC Department of Health and Environmental Control. “When the positive percentage is low, it can indicate that more widespread tests are being carried out and the positive percentage can more accurately reflect the amount of disease present in the community.”
For the week of May 17-23, DHEC predicts that 1,050 positive cases will be reported recently across the state. Next week, the total is projected at 1,024 cases, and the following week, the total should be estimated at 1,000 positive cases.
On June 6, DHEC projects that the total number of reported cases in South Carolina this year will reach 11,800. In comparison, DHEC reports that there were 6,711 laboratory-confirmed flu tests this season.
Flu activity across the state has dropped significantly since February. The cases of COVID-19 appear to have been flattened, but the accuracy of the disease curve is more difficult to assess with the coronavirus because the test during the first days of the disease was largely sporadic and slow.
O’Bryan estimates that MUSC is testing 2,000 people a week and expects that number to grow from next week as testing capacity grows.
With the reopening of businesses and public spaces across the state, O’Bryan said he considered the next three weeks to be critical. If people continue to follow the guidelines for social detachment, the disease curve will continue to flatten out, he said. Otherwise, the disease may increase again.
“Companies need to take this very seriously,” he said.
To reach Lauren Sausser at 843-937-5598.