Novavax’s stock rises as its Covid-19 vaccine outpaces J&J

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Investors are projecting new winners in the Covid-19 vaccine race immediately after the latest disclosure of test results.

The widely expected data on Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose candidate vaccine fell short of expectations on Friday morning, while a new biotech company seemed to outperform the big pharmaceutical company.

Johnson & Johnson’s shares fell, while the shares of other companies that produce or develop vaccines soared. The biggest winner was the biotech company Novavax, which published data in its own Covid-19 vaccine trial on Thursday night that was stronger than the Johnson & Johnson data on Friday morning.

Novavax’s shares rose 72.5% on Friday to $ 231.35. A year ago, on January 29, 2020, the stock closed at $ 6.84.

Also rising were shares of

Modern

(MRNA), up to 7.2%;

Pfizer

(PFE), an increase of 1.3%; and

BioNTech

(BNTX), up to 4.7%. All three sell currently authorized Covid-19 vaccines.

Johnson & Johnson shares, in turn, fell 3.3%. The

S&P 500

also fell, falling 0.9%.

Johnson & Johnson reported on Friday that its Covid-19 vaccine was 66% effective in preventing moderate to severe Covid-19, short of widely cited expectations that the vaccine would be at least 80% effective.

However, the company also said the vaccine was 85% effective in preventing serious illness and completely effective in preventing hospitalization and death from Covid-19.

Crucially, while protection against moderate to severe illnesses was markedly lower in South Africa, where virtually all cases were caused by a new and worrying strain of the virus, protection against serious illnesses was just as strong as elsewhere. This is a positive sign, given the new reports that the South African strain is now spreading across the world.

In a call with investors on Friday, a Johnson & Johnson executive argued that the spread of variants of the Covid-19 virus meant that it was impossible to compare the results of the Johnson & Johnson study with large studies earlier in the year, before these mutations were widespread.

“Our data is not comparable, apples to apples, with the data previously generated,” said Dr. Mathai Mammen, global head of research and development for the Johnson & Johnson subsidiary Janssen Pharmaceutical Companies.

Novavax is conducting an additional Phase 3 test of its vaccine in the United States. The company’s CEO, Stan Erck, told Bloomberg that they were in dialogue with the FDA about whether they could send the drug for emergency use authorization now or whether they would need to wait for the test to be completed in the United States. Johnson & Johnson said it plans to file an emergency authorization request in early February.

The Johnson & Johnson vaccine’s ability to prevent serious illnesses suggests that it is likely to play an important role in controlling the pandemic. A key element will be the price. Johnson & Johnson plans to distribute its nonprofit vaccine during the pandemic. Novavax has not made such a commitment, nor has Moderna or Pfizer.

The vaccine was also tested as a single dose, a significant advantage over the Moderna, Pfizer and Novavax offerings, which require two doses.

Still, the numbers presented on Friday by Johnson & Johnson suggest that his vaccine does not offer as much protection from Covid-19 as the vaccine from the relatively new Novavax, which said on Thursday that its vaccine was 89.3% effective in a Phase 3 study in the UK and 95.6% effectiveness against the original Covid-19 strain.

These results appear to place Novavax in the same category as the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines in terms of effectiveness. In tests carried out at the beginning of the year, these vaccines demonstrated 95% protection against symptomatic diseases.

“We believe these results clearly demonstrate a differentiating and efficacy and more than viable safety profile (in addition to improved distribution logistics) compared to current vaccines with the USA,” wrote Charles Duncan, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, in a note published Friday on Novavax.

Novavax is already developing a vaccine or booster to target the South African variant of the Covid-19 virus. The company said its vaccine showed only 60% effectiveness in a Phase 2b study in South Africa, where almost all infections appear to have been from the South African strain.

Novavax has no commercialized products. It is also developing vaccines to prevent seasonal flu, respiratory syncytial viruses and other diseases.

Write to Josh Nathan-Kazis at [email protected]