In the days following the January 6 attack on the Capitol, telephone lines and websites for local electoral officials across the country skyrocketed: tens of thousands of Republicans called or connected to change their party affiliations.
In California, more than 33,000 registered Republicans left the party during the three weeks after the Washington riot. In Pennsylvania, more than 12,000 voters left the Republican Party last month, and more than 10,000 Republicans changed their registration in Arizona.
An analysis of the January voting records by The New York Times found that almost 140,000 Republicans had resigned from the party in 25 states that had data available (19 states have no party registration). Voting experts said the data indicated a stronger-than-normal flight from a political party after a presidential election, as well as the potential start of a damaging period for Republican Party records as voters retreat from violence on Capitol Hill and its consequences.
Among those who recently left the party are Juan Nunez, 56, an Army veteran in Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania. He said he had long felt that the difference between the United States and many other countries was that the campaign season’s fighting ended on Election Day, when all sides would peacefully accept the result. The January 6 riot changed that, he said.
“What happened in DC that day broke my heart,” said Nunez, a longtime Republican who is preparing to register as an independent. “It shook me deeply.”
The biggest spikes in Republicans leaving the party came days after January 6, especially in California, where there were 1,020 Republican changes on January 5 – and then 3,243 on January 7. In Arizona, there were 233 Republican changes in the first five days of January and 3,317 next week. Most Republicans in these states and others have switched to non-affiliated status.
Voter lists often change after the presidential election, when records sometimes shift towards the winner’s party or people update their old affiliations to match their current party preferences, usually in a motor vehicle department. Other states remove inactive voters, deceased voters or those who have moved from all parties, and group these people with voters who have changed their own records. Of the 25 states surveyed by The Times, Nevada, Kansas, Utah and Oklahoma combined maintaining voter lists with registration changes, so their grand totals would not be limited to changes made by voters themselves. Other states may also have done this, but have not indicated it in their public data.
Among Democrats, 79,000 have left the party since early January.
But the turmoil on Capitol Hill and the historic unpopularity of former President Donald J. Trump contributed to an intensely fluid period in American politics. Many Republicans denounced the pro-Trump forces that revolted on January 6, and 10 Republican members of the House voted to impeach Trump. A considerable number of Republicans now say they support key elements of President Biden’s stimulus package; the opposite party is usually cautious, if not hostile, about a new president’s top political priorities.
“Since this is a highly unusual activity, it is probably indicative of a larger trend that is going on, where there are other people who are also thinking that they no longer feel part of the Republican Party, but simply have not. I contacted election officials to tell them that they could change their party registration, ”said Michael P. McDonald, professor of political science at the University of Florida. “So this is probably the tip of an iceberg.”
But, he warned, it could also be the vocal reality of “never Trump” simply coming into focus when Republicans finally took the step to change their registration, although they had not supported the president and his party since 2016.
Kevin Madden, a former Republican agent who worked on Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign, fits this trend line, although he was ahead of the recent exodus. He said he changed his registration to an independent a year ago after watching what he called harassment of foreign career service officials in Trump’s first impeachment trial.
“It is not a birthright and it is not a religion,” said Madden of party affiliation. “Political parties should be more like the association of the local community. If the condominium association starts to act inconsistently with your beliefs, you move. “
As for the general tendency for Republicans to leave their party, he said it was too early to say whether that would mean problems in the long run, but that the numbers could not be overlooked. “In all the time I worked on politics,” he said, “what has always worried me is not the position, but the trend line.”
Some Republican Party officials noted the significant record gains that Republicans saw recently, even before the 2020 election, and noted that the party had recovered quickly in the past.
“You never want to lose records at any time, and clearly the January Capitol scene has exacerbated the already considerable problems that Republicans are having with the constituency,” said Josh Holmes, one of Sen. Mitch McConnell’s top political advisers. , the minority leader. “Today’s drop in support really pales in comparison to the challenges of a decade ago, however, when Republicans went from absolute irrelevance to a majority in the House in 18 months.”
He added: “If Republicans can come together behind basic conservative principles and withstand the liberal exaggeration of the Biden government, things will change much faster than people think.”
In North Carolina, the change was immediately noticeable. The state experienced a notable increase in Republicans changing their party affiliation: 3,007 in the first week after the riot, 2,850 the following week and 2,120 the following week. A consistent number of about 650 Democrats changed their party membership every week.
But state officials from the Republican Party downplayed any significance in the changes and expressed confidence that North Carolina, a battleground that has bent over Republicans recently, will remain in its column.
“Relatively small variations in voter registration over a short period of time in the pool of more than seven million registered voters in North Carolina are not particularly worrying,” said Tim Wigginton, communications director for the state party, in a statement, predicting that North Carolina would continue to vote for Republicans at the state level.
In Arizona, 10,174 Republicans have changed their party record since the attack, as the state party has moved further to the right, as reflected in its decision to censor three Republicans – Governor Doug Ducey, former Senator Jeff Flake and Cindy McCain – for various acts deemed unfair to Mr. Trump. The party continues to raise questions about the 2020 election, and last week, Republicans in the State Legislative Assembly supported the arrest of Maricopa County election officials for refusing to comply with comprehensive subpoenas for election equipment and materials.
It is these actions, argue some Republican strategists in Arizona, that have caused the drop in Republican voter registration in the state.
“The exodus that is happening now, based on my instincts and all the people who are calling me here, is that they are leaving as a result of the acts of sedition that took place and the continuing questioning of the Arizona vote,” said Chuck Coughlin, a Republican strategist in Arizona.
For Heidi Ushinski, 41, the decision to leave the Arizona Republican Party was an easy one. After the election, she said, she registered as a Democrat because “the Republican Party of Arizona just went crazy” and did not “give up on this fraudulent electoral thing”.
“The GOP used to represent what we considered moral, just character and integrity,” she added. “I think the GOP franc from Arizona missed that.”
This is the third time that Ms. Ushinski has changed her party record. She usually registers again to be able to vote against candidates. This time, she did it because she didn’t feel that there was a place for people like her in the “new” Republican Party.
“I admire Jeffry Flakes and Cindy McCains,” she said. “Seeing the GOP go after them, specifically, when they speak in ways that I understand, it just shows me that there is nothing else in the GOP that I can defend. And it is very sad. “
Nunez, the Pennsylvania Army veteran, said his disgust at the Capitol revolt increased when Republicans in Congress continued to refuse to send stimulus checks and vehemently opposed raising the minimum wage to $ 15 an hour.
“They were very quick to rescue corporations, giving money to big companies, but they continue to struggle to give money to those in need,” said Nunez, who plans to change parties this week. “Furthermore, I am a business owner and I cannot imagine living on $ 7 an hour. We have to be fair ”.
Although the number of voters who left the Republican Party varied from state to state, almost all states surveyed showed a notable increase. In Colorado, some 4,700 Republican voters changed their registration status in the nine days after the riot. In New Hampshire, about 10,000 left the party’s voter list last month, and in Louisiana about 5,500 as well.
Even in states with no party voter registration, some Republicans have spoken out about the exit.
In Michigan, Mayor Michael Taylor of Sterling Heights, the fourth largest city in the state, already had one foot outside the door of the Republican Party before the 2020 elections. Even though he was a longtime Republican, he was unable to vote for Trump for president after supporting him in 2016. Instead, he voted for Biden.
After the election, the relentless promotion of conspiracy theories by Republican Party leaders and the attack on the Capitol pushed him out of the party.
“Before the election there was enough to take advantage of the Republican Party, but the incredible events since then have made it clear to me that I do not fit into this party,” said Taylor. “It was no longer just complaining about electoral fraud. They took control of the Capitol at the behest of the President of the United States. And if there was a clear break from the party in my mind, that was it. “
Mr. Taylor plans to run for re-election this year and, although it is a non-partisan dispute, community members are well aware of the change in their thinking since the last municipal election in 2017.
He already has two opponents, including a staunch Trump supporter, who has begun to criticize Taylor for his lack of support for the former president.