The oddsmakers were contemplating what the line would be in an AFC championship game between Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs for days. Still, on Sunday afternoon, after the confrontation was settled, the opening line varied wildly, from Chiefs -4 to Bills -2.5, in sportsbooks around the world.
That’s what Patrick Mahomes’ injury did to the betting market, and it’s just the beginning.
By the end of Sunday night, the line had established itself with the Chiefs as favorites of 2.5 points, with some books at -3. It is unlikely to remain there.
Mahomes left the Chiefs’ 22-17 victory in the playoff over the Cleveland Browns in the second half with a concussion. His status for the AFC Championship Game was in the air towards Monday. If he plays, the line will almost certainly grow. If he gets eliminated, Buffalo could end up being the favorite and the Green Bay Packers could become the Super Bowl favorites.
“If Mahomes were dropped, the Bills would be a decent favorite,” said John Murray, executive director of the SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas, on Sunday night, noting that some of its chance makers designed a line as high as Buffalo -7 if backup Chad Henne starts for the Chiefs in place of Mahomes. “That sounds a little extreme to me, but it gives you an idea of how much Mahomes crashed into Henne, in terms of point distribution.”
Johnny Avello, director of betting at DraftKings, expected the Chiefs to remain the favorites to win the Super Bowl, but he knows the gap has narrowed significantly with Mahomes’ injury.
“They will still be the favorites, but it will be a little more restricted,” said Avello.
On Sunday night, William Hill US sportsbooks had the Chiefs at +200 to win the Super Bowl, followed by the Packers at +225, Bills +300 and Buccaneers +400. But a lot can change this week.
In the meantime, here are the notable bets.
NFL
• On Sunday night, the Packers were a consensus favorite with 4 points over the Buccaneers in the NFC championship game. The SuperBook opened Green Bay at -4.5 and quickly took money to the oppressed Buccaneers, bringing the number to -4.
• In the AFC Championship Game, most of the initial bets were on Bills on the SuperBook. “Although the biggest bet so far has been $ 20,000 on Chiefs -3 (even),” said Murray. “The public likes these two teams, although the Chiefs continue to disappoint the punters. They were unable to cover again today.”
• The Chiefs have failed to make up the difference in eight of the last nine games.
• Late money appeared in the Browns before the game started on Sunday. The line, which fluctuated between Kansas City -10 and -9.5 throughout the week, plummeted to -7.5 before the start of the game. The SuperBook reported making a lot of money from Cleveland, while the entire market was moving towards the less favored Browns.
“The difference between 7.5 and 9.5 is not that big,” said Avello of DrafKings. “I don’t know why this thing fell. I can’t explain why they were taking nine, eight and a half and eight.”
At Circa Sports, a Las Vegas sportsbook known for serving professional punters, there was more betting in Kansas City, but more money was betting in Cleveland.
“All the big bets that we keep making are on the Browns,” said Matt Metcalf, director of betting at Circa Sports in Las Vegas, in a text message before the start of Sunday’s game. “Someone just took [Cleveland plus] 8 a minute ago. “
• The Chiefs were winning 22-10, with just over 11 minutes left when Mahomes was officially dropped for the rest of the match. Kansas City was a big favorite at that point, -900 to win the game. After a Browns touchdown reduced the lead to 22-17 and Mahomes was discarded, the live odds changed to Chiefs -500.
• The most popular player proposition bet in the Browns-Chiefs game in the New Jersey typical sportsbook was below 260.5 in Baker Mayfield’s passing yards, which accounted for 50% of the book’s action in players’ props.
• The Buccaneers-Saints game on Sunday was the weekend’s heaviest betting game for several sports bets.
• A sportsbook bettor with PointsBet placed a $ 5,400 bet per point on the -3.5 accounts against the Ravens. In this example, the point bet, commonly known as the point bet, was based on the number of points for which the accounts covered the spread. They covered the spread by 11.5 points and the player won $ 56,700 net.
• The Rams-Packers game on Saturday was classified as a “Pros vs. Joes” game by some. The underdog Rams attracted early betting interest from professional bettors at +7. The line dropped to Green Bay -6.5 and remained there for most of the week, despite unbalanced bets on favorite Packers. At the beginning of PointsBet, 82% of the bets and 89% of the money bet were on Green Bay. The Packers won and covered the spread 32-18.
NBA
Favorite Nets at the Eastern Conference after Harden’s switch
Following the acquisition of James Harden, the Brooklyn Nets took over from the Milwaukee Bucks and is now the Eastern Conference favorite. But some oddsmakers are still not convinced of the NBA’s newest super team.
The Nets title chances improved from 12-1 to 7-2 last week in the SuperBook. Jeff Sherman, who oversees the chances of the NBA SuperBook, began reducing the chances of the Brooklyn title last Tuesday after Harden told reporters he did not think the situation in Houston could be fixed. Sherman first reduced the Nets’ chances to 8-1, then to 6-1 before moving to 7-2 after the deal.
Only the Los Angeles Lakers have better title chances than the Nets, which attracted big bets on the SuperBook in the preseason and more recently, including a $ 10,000 bet in December. The Bucks have the second best chance at the Eastern Conference at 8-1, followed by the Boston Celtics, Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers at 20-1.
“I don’t have as much separation between them and some of the other teams in the East, as indicated by the title chances,” said Sherman. “When you see 7-2 in the Nets and 8-1 in the Bucks, and Heat, Celtics and Sixers in 20-1, I don’t think that on a per-game basis is much of a difference than what appears to be based on the title odds . “
Sherman said his classification of power in the Nets is uncertain for now, while he waits to see how Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant and Harden will develop the chemistry.
“They can talk about a good game all they want, but we don’t know how the chemistry is going to get out of it,” said Sherman. “There are already rumors that Irving is not happy with the Nets backstage. Will it make you more unhappy?”
Three issues
… with Scott Butera, co-CEO of the sports betting platform Vigtory, which last week announced its intention to be acquired by the fuboTV live TV streaming platform. The acquisition business is in the final stages and, when completed, fuboTV expects to launch a sports bet before the end of the year.
Q: What is your view of the product that will come out of the fuboTV-Vigtory business?
AN: I think being able to watch sports live, make transactions and bet on sports is very powerful. I also think it gives us tremendous reach in terms of reaching and acquiring customers. The product, we will announce at the right time, but the idea is that you have a kind of simultaneous experience between consuming sports, watching sports and being able to bet on sports and carry out sports transactions. It can be bet, it can be merchandise, get tickets. I think the idea is to create these multifaceted global entertainment experiences. We found that there is a lot of synergy between the two.
Q: What are the remaining obstacles to launching this service?
AN: In terms of obstacles, clearly, like any other operator, we will have a state implementation plan. We’re stuck in it. Obtain the correct legislation passed in jurisdictions that have not yet been passed. I think these things will evolve over time. I think this combination [with fuboTV] helps us to overcome this, and I think there are many different ways to enter the markets now, which go beyond traditional forms of sports betting, whether through streaming services or other products that we can present that do not necessarily have the same regulatory challenges that sports betting has at the moment. This helps us to clean many of them, actually.
Q: Vigtory’s announced approach to sports betting was to offer a low term sports betting option. Is that still the plan?
AN: Our plan has always been to have a really great and great value product. We want to have excellent technology, exceptional experiences and good value. And value is not necessarily defined by price; it’s defined by what you get for what you paid, and that’s always been our goal.