SALT LAKE CITY – Public health experts say they remain cautiously optimistic about the prospect of the COVID-19 pandemic, as the number of new cases decreases and the number of vaccinated Utahns increases dramatically.
Friday marked the first time that there have been less than 15,000 active cases of COVID-19 in Utah since September 24, 2020, according to data from the Utah Department of Health. It is a number that reached more than 63,000 at one point in late November.
The state’s seven-day continuous average person-to-person positivity rate fell below 10% on February 26 for the first time since September 7, 2020. Utah’s seven-day continuous average on Friday was 543 new cases per day, which is the lowest since September 14, 2020. All of this data shows that Utah is where it was before the sudden drop in growth led to the highest COVID-19 rates the state has received so far.
Meanwhile, vaccinations are increasing. The health department now reports that 529,871 Utahns have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, meaning that the number of Utahns who have been vaccinated since December 15, 2020 is now almost 1.5 times the number of people who contracted COVID-19 since a year ago on Saturday.
But while some states have used the vaccine, their own case declines, or national declines as a reason to ease restrictions back, a Utah health expert said Friday that it is still too early to do so.
Dr. Brandon Webb, an infectious disease physician at Intermountain Healthcare, estimates that Utah has about 30% immunity when considering vaccines administered or recent cases. That is a number he said was “fantastic”, he says, but the estimate is still below the 70% or more that experts believe needs to be achieved to achieve herd immunity.
“We are not there yet,” said Webb during a question and answer session with members of the media on Friday. “We have not reached a point where we can rely only on the herd’s 30% immunity, so it is important that we continue to follow the social restrictions and precautions that have been established by the Department of Health.”
That’s why Webb warned about loosening restrictions early or celebrating too early, especially as some states, like Texas, announced those plans this week.
Governor Spencer Cox said on Thursday that Utah will continue to move forward with its reopening plan in different stages, even amid pressure from politicians inside and outside Utah to reopen “100%” increases.
There is hope on the horizon – we can see the finish line, but now the last thing we can do is get in the way of the ball before crossing the goal line.
–Dr. Brandon Webb, infectious disease physician at Intermountain Healthcare
For months, former governor Gary Herbert used a sports cliché in his coronavirus news conference. With each positive step Utah took last year, he pointed out that leaders and health experts were not ready to “make a leap in football”. Simply put, it was too early to celebrate because there was still work to be done to get out of the pandemic.
With the number of COVID-19 cases decreasing and vaccines available, Webb offered a similar sporting analogy on Friday.
“We need to see this to completion. There is hope on the horizon – we can see the finish line, but now the last thing we can do is to fumble the ball before crossing the goal line,” he said. “If we think about it in terms of strong finish and individuals making personal decisions based on their level of individual risk, we will be able to reach that finish line while our vaccination distribution continues to accelerate.”
Part of the reason that experts remain cautiously optimistic is that declines in the count of new reported cases have started to flatten out, indicating a possible plateau in new cases, rather than disappearing altogether.
At the same time, Webb pointed out that vaccination efforts around the world are in a “race against” the various variants of the discovered coronavirus that may prevent the entire vaccination process.
So, how should Utah proceed to reopen?
The ‘wisest course of action’
Utah leaders on Thursday placed Salt Lake and Davis counties at the “moderate” transmission rate level of the state’s transmission rate. They joined Box Elder, Cache, Duchesne, Grand, Juab, Morgan, San Juan, Sanpete, Wasatch, Washington and Weber counties in that category.
Only five counties – Daggett, Millard, Piute, Rich and Wayne – are at the “low” transmission rate. The remaining 11 counties remain in the “high” transmission category. These are Beaver, Carbon, Emery, Garfield, Iron, Kane, Savier, Summit, Tooele, Uintah and Utah counties.
Webb called the layered approach to COVID-19’s reopening state “the wisest course of action.”
“As fewer and fewer people in the community are susceptible, we can reduce restrictions more and more,” he said. “All of these incremental steps to loosen restrictions must be linked to how many individuals in our community have immunity.”
That is why he encourages people to wear masks, practice social detachment when necessary and avoid “poorly ventilated areas”. All of this can help to slow the spread of the virus.
Although some communities have eased restrictions, Webb encouraged people to still be careful and follow guidelines to reduce the spread of coronavirus, even if they have been removed. He added that vaccines are extremely useful, but warned that more people need to get them.
“Not everyone should see the vaccine as a ticket to total freedom, although we still have a very high transmission in the community,” he said. “Not everyone was vaccinated.”
Adding a new vaccine to the mix
Utahns started receiving the unique vaccine from Johnson & Johnson this week. Webb said he read the entire 80-page report on the vaccine collected in clinical trials and believes the vaccine is “very favorable”.
“The safety data is excellent,” he added, noting that the vaccine’s serious adverse events were “very unusual.”
Utah Department of Health epidemiologist Dr. Angela Dunn said on Thursday that one of the most common questions the health department has received is which of the three vaccine options they should receive. She said that taking any of the vaccines is the best approach to the process.
“The best vaccine for you is one that you can get first, regardless of the manufacturer,” she said.
Intermountain officials pointed out that this is the case for everyone, except for 16- or 17-year-olds, since the Pfizer vaccine is the only one that has been approved for individuals so young so far.
Most vaccines administered so far are through Moderna or Pfizer-BioNTech, which require two doses. Although both are considered to be about 95% effective after the second dose, it is possible that someone could test positive for COVID-19 after receiving the primary dose of either vaccine.
In that case, Webb said the symptoms are generally milder. He added that it is now recommended that anyone who gets COVID-19 after receiving the first dose of any of the vaccines still receive the second dose after the case has been resolved and they have waited beyond the 10-day isolation period.
“It is safe and appropriate to go ahead and take the second dose,” he said.
Utah 6-month perspective
It has been almost six months since the autumn wave started in Utah. Now that Utah is close to where it was at the end of last summer, what will the next six months be like?
The vaccines available are the biggest difference between September 2020 and March 2021. It is what Webb called “the most important tool at the moment”.
Current trends, he said, are also “favorable” that restrictions, such as masking mandates, could be lifted in the next six months. For this to happen, however, Utahns will still need to follow guidelines that aim to slow the spread of the coronavirus.
“We need to stay on course and get to the finish line, continuing to follow social restrictions and other layers of protection until our case count and the number of vaccinated individuals reach a point where we can safely pass the baton from those things we’re all tired of immunity from, “he said. “We are on the right track now with the current distribution of the vaccine so that we can gradually ease restrictions during the spring and summer.”