VATICAN CITY (AP) – Infectious disease experts express concern about Pope Francis’ upcoming trip to Iraq due to the sharp rise in coronavirus infections in that country, a fragile health system and the inevitable likelihood that Iraqis will flock to see it.
Nobody wants to tell Francis to cancel, and the Iraqi government has every interest in showing its relative stability by welcoming the first pope into Abraham’s hometown. The March 5-8 March trip is expected to provide an extremely necessary spiritual boost for besieged Christians in Iraq while promoting Vatican bridge building efforts with the Muslim world.
But from a purely epidemiological point of view, as well as from the public health message it sends, a papal trip to Iraq in the midst of a global pandemic is not advisable, health experts say.
His concerns were reinforced with the news on Sunday that the Vatican’s ambassador to Iraq, primarily responsible for the trip that would have accompanied Francisco to all of his appointments, tested positive for COVID-19 and was isolating himself.
In an email to the Associated Press, the embassy said that Archbishop Mitja Leskovar’s symptoms were mild and that he continued to prepare for Francisco’s visit.
In addition to their case, experts note that wars, economic crises and an exodus of Iraqi professionals have devastated the country’s hospital system, while studies show that most of Iraq’s new COVID-19 infections are the highly contagious variant first identified in Britain.
“I just don’t think it’s a good idea,” said Dr. Navid Madani, virologist and founding director of the Center for Science and Health Education in the Middle East and North Africa at the Harvard Medical School’s Dana-Farber Cancer Institute.
Iranian-born Madani co-authored an article in The Lancet last year about the region’s uneven response to COVID-19, noting that Iraq, Syria and Yemen were poorly placed to deal with the situation, since they are still fighting extremist insurgencies and have 40 million people in need of humanitarian aid.
In a telephone interview, Madani said Middle Easterners are known for their hospitality and warned that enthusiasm among Iraqis to welcome a peacemaker like Francisco in an abandoned and war-torn part of the world could lead to inadvertent violations of the measures virus control.
“This can lead to unsafe or over-spreading risks,” she said.
Dr. Bharat Pankhania, an infectious disease control specialist at the University of Exeter College of Medicine, agreed.
“It is a perfect storm to generate many cases that you will not be able to deal with,” he said.
Organizers promise to enforce the masks’ mandates, social distance and crowd limits, as well as the possibility of increasing test sites, said two Iraqi government officials.
Health protocols are “critical, but can be managed,” a government official told the Associated Press, on condition of anonymity.
And the Vatican took its own precautions, with the 84-year-old pope, his entourage of 20 Vatican members and the more than 70 journalists on the papal plane all vaccinated.
But Iraqis gathered in the north, center and south of the country to attend Francis’ internal and external masses, listen to his speeches and attend his prayer meetings are not vaccinated.
And that, say the scientists, is the problem.
“We are in the middle of a global pandemic. And it is important to spread the right messages, ”said Pankhania. “The right messages are: the less interactions with other human beings, the better.”
He questioned the view that the Vatican delegation was being vaccinated, while Iraqis were not, and noted that Iraqis would only take such risks to attend these events because the pope was there.
In words addressed to Vatican officials and the media, he said: “You are all protected from serious illness. So if you are infected, you will not die. But people who come to see you can get infected and they can die. “
“Is it wise, in these circumstances, for you to just show up? And why do you show up, do people show up to see you and get infected? ” he asked.
The World Health Organization was diplomatic when asked about the wisdom of a papal trip to Iraq, saying that countries should assess the risk of an event against the infection situation and then decide whether it should be postponed.
“It’s all about managing that risk,” said Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO technical leader at COVID-19. “It is about observing the country’s epidemiological situation and then making sure that, if this event occurs, it is as safe as possible”.
Francis said he plans to go, even if most Iraqis have to watch it on television to avoid infection. The important thing, he told the Catholic News Service, is “they will see that the pope is there in his country”.
Francis often calls for equitable distribution of vaccines and respect for government health measures, although he tends not to wear masks. For months, Francis even avoided socially distant public hearings in the Vatican to limit the chance of contagion.
Dr Michael Head, senior researcher in global health at the University of Southampton School of Medicine, said the number of new daily cases in Iraq “is increasing significantly at the moment,” with the Ministry of Health reporting about 4,000 a day, near the height of its first wave in September.
Head said that for any trip to Iraq, there must be infection control practices in place, including wearing a mask, hand washing, social distance and good indoor ventilation.
“We hope to see proactive infection control approaches in place during the pope’s visit to Baghdad,” he said.
The Iraqi government imposed a modified block and curfew in mid-February amid a further increase in cases, closing schools and mosques and leaving restaurants and cafes open only for delivery. But the government decided against total closure due to the difficulty of applying it and the financial impact on Iraq’s damaged economy, Iraqi officials told the AP.
Many Iraqis remain relaxed about wearing masks and some doubt the severity of the virus.
Madani, the Harvard virologist, asked travel organizers to let science and data guide their decision making.
The decision to reschedule or postpone the papal trip, or move it to a virtual format, would be “quite impactful from the point of view of global leadership” because “it would be a sign of prioritizing the security of Iraq’s public,” she said.
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Kullab reported from Baghdad. Jamey Keaten in Geneva contributed.
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