Among the films leading the charge are “Da 5 Bloods”, “One Night in Miami”, “Minari” and “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”.
Forget groups of intellectual critics. They are influential, but the Screen Actors Guild Awards reflect more on the direction the Academy actors are taking. SAG and Oscar do not always line up, some of which are a matter of time: last-minute films are often not seen enough by the SAG nomination committee. SAG voters tend to be more traditional and younger than the Academy’s dominant branch of actors, not to mention that they are larger in number: each year, SAG selects a new 2,500 member nomination committee, about twice as many. Academy voters.
Last year, nominees for Best Picture “The Irishman” and “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” received four nominations each, including Cast in a Movie and Stunt Crew, while Greta Gerwig’s “Little Women” was excluded. Remember Bryan Cranston’s shock to “Trumbo”? The SAG nominee ended with an Oscar nomination. SAG actors love Jay Roach; Last year’s #MeToo drama, “Bombshell”, had four nominations, including a coveted cast slot, which usually portends a Best Picture nomination. This SAG love was not transferred to the wider Academy voter camp: Charlize Theron and Margot Robbie got Oscar nods, but not Nicole Kidman.
But when Bong Joon Ho’s “Parasite” arrived at the Ensemble, it was suddenly possible for Neon to go all-in on a genuine Oscar nominee for Best Picture. It was a sign that the film was popular enough to go through.
Here are our nomination predictions for the SAG Awards, ranked in order of probability of winning slots. Come back on February 4th to see my analysis of the final nominees.
Film Ensemble
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Paramount / Netflix)
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix)
“One Night in Miami” (Amazon Studios)
“Minari” (A24)
“Da 5 Bloods” (Netflix)
Dark horse: “Mank” (Netflix)
In a perfect world: “Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros.)
Three popular films with extensive casts (“Chicago 7,” “Ma Rainey” and “Miami”) are blocks for this category. The question is which of the two Netflix films will fill the remaining slots: “Mank” by David Fincher, who has two strong actors who should easily get nominations (Gary Oldman and Amanda Seyfried), or “Da 5 Bloods” by Spike Lee, who is hanging strong despite its launch earlier this year. It features an impressive ensemble, from the powerful leader Delroy Lindo (named as part of the “The Cider House Rules” set two decades ago) to Clarke Peters (part of the set named “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”), the late great Chadwick Boseman ( part of the set named “Black Panther”), Jonathan Majors and Isiah Whitlock, Jr .. They can be irresistible.
Don’t be surprised if SAG leans towards diversity again this year, including the strong cast of Lee Isaac Chung’s American fable “Minari”, led by Steven Yeun. Shaka King’s “Judas and the Black Messiah” is gaining strong and rave reviews, but it may have been shown too late.
Where’s the supposed Oscar winner “Nomadland?” Due to its innovative hybrid cast of professionals and non-professionals, this is unlikely to reach the Ensemble.
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Netflix
Movie Actress
Viola Davis (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”)
Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”)
Vanessa Kirby (“Pieces of Women”)
Carey Mulligan (“Promising young woman”)
Zendaya (“Malcolm & Marie”)
Dark horse: Amy Adams (“Country Chic”)
In a perfect world: Kate Winslet (“Ammonite”)
Oscar Davis and McDormand winners lead the field, with younger players attacking their heels. Netflix set up SAG sessions for the winner of the Venice actress “Pieces of a Woman”, “Hillbilly Elegy” (which the actors admire more than the critics) and the last “Malcolm & Marie”. Sizzling “Euphoria” Emmy winner Zendaya needs this nomination to advance to the Oscars, but Carey Mulligan has been gaining traction in “Promising Young Woman”.
Kate Winslet, with eight acting waves in the cinema, two Ensemble Cast (“Titanic,” Reason and Sensitivity ”) and two victories (“ Reason and Sensitivity ”and“ The Reader ”) is a perennial SAG; do not underestimate the ability of the distributor “Parasite” Neon to make “Ammonite” cross the finish line.
Movie actor
Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”)
Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”)
Delroy Lindo (“Da 5 Bloods”)
Riz Ahmed (“Sound of Metal”)
Gary Oldman (“Mank”)
Dark horse: Steven Yeun (“Minari”)
In a perfect world: Mads Mikkelsen (“Another Round”)
There was a time during the fall film festivals when Sir Anthony led the pack for the father-daughter dispute with Olivia Colman, but Boseman’s explosive performance as trumpeter Levee in the August Wilson film play is poised for a posthumous victory well deserved. Boseman could also be included in the ensemble cast and supporting actor for “Da 5 Bloods”, and Lindo should be recognized for the film in this category. Riz Ahmed will not be denied his place as a drummer by going deaf in “Sound of Metal”.
Oldman, who won the SAG award for “Darkest Hour” on his way to the Oscars and is charming as the alcoholic screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz in “Mank”, can be vulnerable if the SAG actors want to make room for someone new. The Danish nomination for the Oscar “Another Round” is a long shot, clearly, but the film and the actor are loved.
Supporting film actress
Amanda Seyfried (“Mank”)
Olivia Colman (“The Father”)
Ellen Burstyn (“Pieces of a Woman”)
Maria Bakalova (“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”)
Youn Yuh-Jung (“Minari”)
Dark horse: Glenn Close (“Elegia caipira”)
In a perfect world: Helena Zengel (“News of the World”)
Seyfried offers more than anyone expected like Marion Davies in “Mank”, which often leads to serious praise. Veterans Colman (winner of “The Favorite”) and Burstyn (SAG-nominated for “Requiem for a Dream”) stand firm as they walk, along with Korean film star Youn Yuh-Jung as the charming grandmother in “Minari”, and unlikely Bulgarian newcomer Maria Bakalova as Borat’s daughter in “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”. The actors love Close, who plays a role as a scene-chewing character in “Elegia do caipira”; she is a perennial SAG and won for “The Wife”, beating eventual Oscar winner Olivia Colman (“The Favorite”).
Supporting film actor
Leslie Odom, Jr. (“One Night in Miami”)
Sacha Baron Cohen (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”)
Chadwick Boseman (“Da 5 Bloods”)
Paul Raci (“Som do Metal”)
Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Black Messiah”)
Dark horse: Mark Rylance (“The Chicago Trial 7”)
In a perfect world: Clarke Peters (“Da 5 Bloods”)
This overcrowded category favors the actor who leaves the set. In this case, with “Hamilton” behind him, Broadway star Odom Jr. plays pop star Sam Cooke in “One Night in Miami”. In the same way, Baron Cohen, star of “The Trial of Chicago 7”, earns extra points for his sequel to “Borat”, which can increase his credibility as Yippie Abbie Hoffman, who, like the actor, is a cheerful prankster with very serious goals. If Boseman gets a Supporting Actor seat, the rest of the excellent rosters of “Da 5 Bloods”, “Miami” and “Chicago” are likely to knock each other out.
The role of veteran actor Raci as a deaf advisor in “Sound of Metal” comes with a compelling narrative: Created to be signed by deaf parents, English was his second language. And assuming voters saw “Judas and the Black Messiah” in time, British actor Kaluuya impressively channels the powerful young Chicago Black Panther Fred Hampton, cut very young by the FBI.
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