Photo-illustration: by Vulture; Photos by Searchlight Pictures and Hulu
Every week between now and March 15, when Oscar nominations are announced, Vulture will consult its crystal ball to determine changes in the fortunes of this year’s Oscar race. In our “Oscar Futures“Column, let’s get you inside gossip, analyze new developments and monitor the buzz of the industry to find out who’s up, who’s down and who’s leading the race for the coveted Oscar nomination.
Best photo
Nomadland
Nomadland was the big winner of Sunday’s Golden Globe, although it is premature to consider it a coronation: in the era of preferential elections, the Best Oscar Film only overlapped the Globo’s choices half the time. Even so, it was a significant victory for Chloé Zhao’s film, as Nomadland not only outperformed HFPA favorite Aaron Sorkin in Best Drama and Best Director, but also proved that Zhao’s critic darling could appeal to voters whose tastes are most popular. With the Oscar vote finally starting this week, the Globes gave the Academy a vision of Nomadland triumphant. Will they like what they saw?
Mank
HFPA was more difficult for Mank than most, giving David Fincher’s silver screen drama six nominations for the Globe. But dreams of a Mank-The back was destroyed when Fincher’s film won none of them, a shameful sign for a film that once looked like a strong candidate. MankThe impeccable recreation of Hollywood in the 1930s should ensure that you receive the art nominations – Cinematography, Production Design, Visual Effects and Costumes are all at stake – but there is a distinct possibility that, like the previous Netflix author’s dream project The Irish, this popular choice for Best Picture at the beginning of the season could also go blank on Oscar night. Keep that shot glass useful, Finch.
Current predix
Judas and the Black Messiah, Black Bottom by Ma Rainey, Mank, Minari, News of the World, Nomadland, One night in miami, Promising young woman, The Chicago Trial 7
Best director
Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
A turnaround by Fincher on the Globe could have thrown that category into disarray, but instead the HFPA turned to chalk, handing Zhao his umpteenth trophy of the season. The race is almost over for the Chinese director, who is on his way to becoming the latest promising filmmaker to be awarded this award.
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
The gap between the top contenders for Best Picture and everyone else only grew at Globes, with a large part of the second division going home empty-handed. In that light, Minari winning the Globe for Best Foreign Film helped him become Schrödinger’s rare Oscar film, where a film is both a contender and a loser at the same time: Team Minari had to revel in televised success while the controversial stance contributed to the feeling that the immigrant’s drama has not yet had its due value.
Current predix
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari; David Fincher, Mank; Regina King, One night in miami; Aaron Sorkin, The Chicago Trial 7; Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
Best Actor
Chadwick Boseman, Black Bottom by Ma Rainey
As everyone expected, Boseman won a posthumous Golden Globe, an occasion that saw his widow Taylor Simone Ledward turn into the most emotional acceptance speech of the night. I don’t think there was any doubt about his Oscar chances before, but Sunday night only cemented that. The Globes’ primary function as a precursor is to serve as a first draft of the Oscar broadcast, and Ledward’s emotional appearance was a moment that the Academy certainly wants to repeat. In truth …
Chadwick Boseman, Black Bottom by Ma Rainey
We can question who will get the fourth and fifth place for Best Actor, but it’s all academic at the moment: Boseman is winning the trophy.
Current predix
Riz Ahmed, Metal sound; Chadwick Boseman, Black Bottom by Ma Rainey; Anthony Hopkins, The father; Gary Oldman, Mank; Steven Yeun, Minari
Best actress
Andra Day, United States x Billie Holiday
In the most shocking victory of the night, Day won the award for Best Actress in a Drama Globe over a quartet of most acclaimed contenders. You have to go back until 1988 – a year when the Globes had an unprecedented triple draw – to find a Drama-winning actress who didn’t win an Oscar nomination, so Day seems to have the final Oscar slot blocked. Once inside, could she take home the grand prize? Contempt from SAG and BAFTA, two organizations with a lot of overlap with the Academy, may indicate that the Globes were hotter on the Day than everyone else. However, his role pushes many Oscar-friendly buttons, from actually singing to drug addiction to a dramatic death scene, and a major victory on national television may be exactly what drives voters to see a performance under one roof. totally new light.
Carey Mulligan, Promising young woman
Before the night of Globo, experts speculated on Promising young woman possibly getting a surprise win on the Script or even on the Director. Not only did this not materialize, but Mulligan lost to Day in a category that she was likely to win. I would still bet on Mulligan instead of anyone else in the field of Best Actress, but it’s never a good sign when HFPA ignores a hectic, hyper-stylized film that looks directly in his wheelhouse. Suffice it to say that a race that looked like it could turn into a Mulligan cakewalk has become much less predictable.
Current predix
Viola Davis, Black Bottom by Ma Rainey; Andra Day, United States x Billie Holiday; Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of woman; Frances McDormand, Nomadland; Carey Mulligan, Promising young woman
Best Supporting Actor
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Kaluuya could dispute the Oscar even though Black Messiah receive no other important indication? On Sunday, the British actor overcame obstacle No. 1 for his candidacy, taking home the Supporting Actor’s Globe instead of two rivals among those nominated for the Best Picture award. And despite some unfortunate technical difficulties, Kaluuya still managed to deliver a totally charming acceptance speech. I think he became the one to be defeated.
Leslie Odom Jr., One night in miami
Of the men who lost to Kaluuya on the Globe, at least Sacha Baron Cohen may be happy to have won an Actor in Musical / Comedy for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, the project he seems to prefer to promote this season. I was not so fortunate for Odom Jr., who missed the chance for a Song of Consolation award when HFPA went to the ballad in Italian “Io sì” by Diane Warren. Altogether, a forgettable night at Zoom for the Regina King film, which scored zero to three.
Current predix
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Chicago Trial 7; Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods; Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah; Jared Leto, The little things; Leslie Odom Jr., One night in miami
Best supporting actress
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
In addition to Day, the other big beneficiary of the night was Foster, an underdog of a supporting actress who won her surprise victory. She made the most of her time, giving a casually victorious speech in pajamas next to his wife. I suspect that the previous winners have an advantage in a season when everyone is paying only half the attention to the race than they usually do, and now it looks like we have another one.
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Performing as an Actress in a Musical / Comedy on the Globe, Bakalova needed a victory – and the presumably hilarious speech that would have happened to her – to get her out of the Oscar bubble. Instead, she lost to Rosamund Pike in I care a lot. In one night, HFPA delivered Borat two other trophies, it seems that the Bulgarian has just lost her best chance.
Current predix
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy; Olivia Colman, The father; Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian; Amanda Seyfried, Mank; Yuh-jung Youn, Minari
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