‘No evidence of decline’ in COVID-19 rates in England’s third blockade

LONDON (Reuters) – A third pandemic block appears to have little impact on COVID-19 rates in England, researchers warned on Thursday, with “very high” and “no evidence of decline” prevalence in the first 10 days of restrictions renewed.

Until COVID-19 rates are reduced substantially, health services “will remain under extreme pressure” and the number of deaths will continue to increase rapidly, said the researchers who lead the REACT-1 prevalence study at Imperial College London.

“The number of patients admitted to COVID-19 (in the hospital) is extremely high at the moment, and we cannot expect it to fall unless we can reach lower levels of prevalence,” said Steven Riley, professor of infectious disease dynamics who – led the work.

“The fact that (prevalence) is not decreasing has potentially serious consequences”

Prime Minister Boris Johnson placed England in a third national confinement on January 5, closing bars, restaurants and most schools, and allowing only essential stores to open.

Ministers called on people to stay at home as long as they could to prevent hospitals from becoming overcrowded and to give authorities time to distribute COVID-19 vaccines to the elderly and those most at risk.

But presenting his most recent data – covering January 6 to January 15 – Riley said that prevalence rates were at 1.58%, the highest recorded by the REACT-1 study since it started in May 2020. This is a an increase of more than 50% since the last reading in mid-December.

Riley also warned against pinning immediate hopes on COVID-19 shots.

“The vaccine will only have a very limited impact on prevalence in the short term,” he told reporters.

Paul Elliott, a specialist in epidemiology and public health medicine and director of the REACT program, said the stubborn levels of COVID-19 infection may be partly due to a more transmissible variant of the virus that emerged at the end of last year.

“We really have to double public health measures – wear face covers, keep your distance and wash your hands,” said Elliott. “There will be continued pressure until we can reduce the prevalence.”

The British government reported a new daily record increase in deaths on Wednesday, with 1,820 people dying in 28 days after a positive COVID-19 test. However, new infections – 38,905 – declined from a recent peak of 68,053 on 8 January.

The health ministry said the full impact of the blockade will not yet be reflected in the prevalence figures, but added that the survey highlighted the importance of everyone staying at home and following restrictions.