Almost two weeks ago, it was hard to believe that a trip to Columbia, South Carolina, was a must win for Missouri men’s basketball.
The Tigers had just dismounted then … No. 10 Alabama, vastly outperforming the Crimson Tide for most of the game and becoming the first team in the Southeast Conference to defeat them this season. Missouri rose to tenth in the Associated Press’s Top 25 the following week. Everything seemed to be trending upwards as the Tigers’ schedule seemed to get lighter.
But Missouri’s No. 20 (13-6, 6-6 SEC) has been on a streak of three consecutive defeats since then. All metrics – from the Associated Press to KenPom – bring the Tigers into free fall, and a loss to South Carolina on Saturday would likely result in another fall.
Gamecocks (5-10, 3-8) are an aggressive team, but not surprising. South Carolina made it to the Final Four four years ago, but past stars Sindarius Thornwell and PJ Dozier will not be on the scene anytime soon for coach Frank Martin.
Gamecocks do not defend to the same caliber as the national semifinal team. South Carolina ranks last in all major defensive categories, in part due to lack of size. Gamecocks are not very long with 6 feet-11 forward Wildens Leveque being the only player higher than 6 feet-7 rotation.
“The biggest problem we have is that we don’t have a defensive personality,” said Martin after his team’s 93-73 loss to Tennessee No. 19 on Wednesday.
Gamecocks have allowed 80 or more points in seven of the last 10 games, including a 81-70 loss to Missouri on January 19. The Tigers pushed the ball through the transition, overtaking South Carolina by quick 20-7 points. Missouri kept guards AJ Lawson and Jermaine Couisnard, two of Gamecocks’ top three scorers, with 11 points combined in four field goals.
While Couisnard was figuratively non-existent in the first clash, he could literally be non-existent on Saturday due to injury. Couisnard (ankle) and striker Justin Minaya (head) – who have averaged 17.8 points, 9.9 rebounds and 5.5 assists this season – did not play on Wednesday. Martin said on his radio program on Thursday that he would be “shocked” if Cousinard played against Missouri, The State reported, but did not rule out Minaya.
His absence was felt against the Vols. The Gamecocks played very early, but failed offensively in the final stretch and did not take care of the ball, turning it 18 times.
Gamecocks may have been shorthanded on Wednesday, but they still have their main scorer in Lawson. The junior guard averages 18 points per game, which is the SEC’s third best. Despite South Carolina’s four-game losing streak, Lawson has suffered a rupture, scoring 20 points or more in three of those games.
“Scoring points has not been an issue for this team,” said Martin on Wednesday. “Our inability to eliminate curves and spacing between floors has been.”
Meanwhile, the Tigers have their own holder, which may not be available on Saturday. Jeremiah Tilmon lost the last two games when he took a leave after his family’s death.
Missouri is 0-2 without Tilmon this season, losing the rebound battle in each game. Although Missouri coach Cuonzo Martin has said he expects Tilmon back soon, it remains to be seen whether he will be available on Saturday.
If Tilmon is unable to go, other Tigers will have to enter the attacking court. Strikers Kobe Brown and Parker Braun played well on the outs, but the strong guard game was more important with Tilmon out.
Guards Xavier Pinson and Dru Smith combined 38 points against Arkansas, almost wishing Missouri would win in overtime. However, the pair fought on Tuesday in Georgia, combining 20 points out of 8 out of 23 shots in a 10 point loss to the Bulldogs.
A positive point against the Bulldogs was Mark Smith, who made 2 of 4 of 3 with three steals. Smith had ups and downs this season, but had his best statistical game in the league in Missouri’s first game against the Gamecocks, scoring 18 points and knocking out three 3s. With Tigers possibly without Tilmon and his 12.8 points per game, Smith could have another great performance against South Carolina.
It is not just offensive that Missouri needs to restrict itself. In five of the last seven games, the Tigers have lost 80 or more points. Four of those games were defeats. Defending without missing has been a problem, with Missouri committing 42 combined fouls in its last two games.
“It’s like someone has to take the bull by the horns, so to speak, and say, ‘OK, come on, we have to stop here, let’s do it,'” said Martin. “Someone has to take the torch.”
In the end, the magic number for Missouri could be 75. South Carolina is 0-10 this year when it allows 75 or more points and 5-0 when opponents are under 75. Tigers are 7-2 in this season when you score 75 or more points.