New Jersey health officials on Sunday reported another 4,613 confirmed cases of the coronavirus and 17 additional deaths, as the state’s predictive models suggest that we have reached the peak of the second wave of the pandemic.
Governor Phil Murphy announced the latest social media figures.
They arrived on the same day that new predictive models from the state Department of Health showed that Sunday could be the peak of the state’s second wave of the pandemic.
The scenarios show that there could be 5,467 new cases and 3,796 people hospitalized on Sunday under a moderate forecast (there were 3,186 people hospitalized on Saturday). But up to 6,833 new positive tests and 4,745 hospitalizations can also occur on the same day in the worst case scenario.
The moderate model shows a more pronounced drop in cases and hospitalizations in the coming months, with the potential for about 500 new cases per day and about 375 people being treated in hospitals by the end of June.
In the worst case modeling scenario, however, the decline in cases and hospitalizations would be much slower. This model predicts that the state may still have 4,706 daily cases and 3,268 hospitalized patients by the end of June. Both forecasts predict an increase in cases and hospitalizations in the coming days.
Much can depend on how quickly New Jersey receives and distributes doses of the vaccine.
Murphy said he wants 70% of the state’s eligible population – nearly 5 million people – to be vaccinated by May.
Health officials, meanwhile, announced on Friday that the first two cases of the highly contagious COVID-19 variant first identified in the UK had been discovered at Garden State.
Scientists said the mutation was up to 70% more contagious. But there is no evidence that it is even more deadly or more resistant to vaccines. New Jersey joins at least 20 states where the strain has been confirmed. The first case identified is of an Ocean County man in his 60s and the other is a child who was traveling to northern New Jersey.
NJ resident deaths by month and year 2015-2020
The pandemic has killed at least 20,951 people in the state since COVID-19’s first death in March.
Deaths from coronavirus in New Jersey have surpassed what is typically recorded for heart disease and cancer, the top two causes of death year after year. On December 31, the state’s official coronavirus number reached 19,042 confirmed and probable deaths in a pandemic that ravaged during the spring, then exploded again in the fall and winter in a second wave that is still turbulent.
This exceeded the normal annual deaths produced by cancer, which killed almost 16,200 people per year from 2014 to 2019, according to data from the Department of Health. .
CORONAVIRUS RESOURCES: Live Map Tracker | Newsletter | Home page
VACCINATIONS
The number of vaccine doses administered exceeded 500,000, according to the vaccination status control panel, which showed 524,865 on Sunday afternoon. Of these, 459,635 were the first of the two doses that people will receive.
New Jersey received 989,900 doses from the federal government, according to an ongoing CDC count.
The state reached a high of 31,859 doses administered in a single day on January 20, based on the most current data.
All six coronavirus vaccine mega-sites have been opened across New Jersey to serve as vaccination centers.
New Jersey faced criticism for slower deployment than dozens of other states as it continues to deal with a second wave of the pandemic, according to data from the Federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The state has distributed the doses in phases. And while the authorities have greatly expanded eligibility for the vaccine last week, demand remains greater than supply, and residents are struggling to get few consultations. More than 4 million New Jersey residents are now eligible.
The authorities emphasize that the state depends on the federal government for its supply and is receiving only 100,000 doses a week, although New Jersey has a capacity of 470,000 a day.
Murphy on Saturday said the federal government did not provide the additional doses that were promised.
HOSPITALIZATIONS
The 3,186 hospitalized patients with confirmed or suspected cases of COVID-19 in New Jersey hospitals on Saturday night included 590 in critical or intensive care (18 less than the night before), with 376 on ventilators (53 less).
There were 74 fewer people hospitalized on Saturday compared to the night before.
There were also 397 patients with COVID-19 who were discharged on Saturday, according to the state’s COVID-19 panel.
The governor said any hospitalization of more than 5,000 patients would likely trigger new rounds of restrictions. But the number of people hospitalized, for the most part, has slowed slowly in the past few days, after hitting 3,873 people in more than seven months on December 22.
SCHOOL CASES
At least 597 students and staff in 121 school districts in New Jersey caught COVID-19 through outbreaks at school, according to the latest update from state health officials.
This is an increase of 10 districts and 40 cases from the previous weekly report. There are now confirmed outbreaks in schools in all 21 counties, although the state does not identify individual school districts.
Bergen County has the highest number of outbreaks (26) and cases (115). The county also has the highest number of confirmed cases, with 55,349 on Wednesday.
These figures do not include students or staff believed to have been infected outside the school or cases that cannot be confirmed as outbreaks within the school. Although the numbers continue to rise each week, Murphy said the school outbreak statistics remain below what state officials expected when schools reopened for face-to-face classes.
New Jersey defines school outbreaks as cases in which contact trackers determined that two or more students or school staff picked up or transmitted COVID-19 in the classroom or during academic activities at school.
AGE DISSOLUTION
Separated by age, those aged 30 to 49 constitute the highest percentage of New Jersey residents who caught the virus (31.2%), followed by those aged 50-64 (23.7%), 18-29 (19, 3%), 65-79 (11.1%), 5-17 (7.5%), 80 and older (5.4%) and 0-4 (1.6%).
On average, the virus was more deadly for older residents, especially those with pre-existing illnesses. Almost half of COVID-19 deaths in the state occurred among residents aged 80 and over (47%), followed by those aged 65-79 (33%), 50-64 (15.6%), 30-49 (4 %), 18-29 (0.4%), 5-17 (0%) and 0-4 (0%).
At least 7,668 of COVID-19 deaths in the state occurred among residents and staff members in nursing homes and other long-term care institutions. That number has risen again at a more pronounced rate in recent months, with deaths in asylum in the state nearly tripling in December.
Currently, there are active outbreaks in 431 facilities, resulting in 7,054 active cases among residents and 7,619 among employees.
GLOBAL NUMBERS
As of Sunday morning, there were more than 98.86 million positive COVID-19 tests worldwide, according to a running count from Johns Hopkins University. More than 2.12 million people died of coronavirus-related complications.
The United States reported the majority of cases, with more than 25 million, and the majority of deaths, with more than 417,500.
NJ Advance Media Team Writer Riley Yates contributed to this report.
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Matt Arco can be contacted at [email protected].