State officials know that at least 50 people have been infected with a variant of the coronavirus in New Jersey, a strain that appears to be more transmissible – and more deadly.
What they don’t know is how many other people in New Jersey may be spreading the most dangerous variant, which came from the UK. State officials do not disclose how many virus samples they tested, and a spokeswoman for the state Department of Health said it is unclear even what percentage of samples is being tested for the strain.
The number of variant cases is almost certainly underreported, say public health experts, and without knowing how many or how often the samples are tested, they fear that this could represent a major setback in the fight against COVID-19.
“It’s really difficult at this point to know when we don’t have the data to support it,” said Stephanie Silvera, an epidemiologist at Montclair State University. “These numbers are probably higher” than what was reported, she said.
“We are opening internal restaurants and increasing capacity, so the variant in the state is worrying. And if we are letting our guard down, it can quickly become the dominant lineage. “
So far, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are reporting 1,523 cases of the UK variant in 42 U.S. states, although again that number is likely to be a fraction of the actual number of infections. The CDC is also reporting 21 cases of a South African variant in 10 states and five cases of a Brazilian variant in four states.
The New Jersey Department of Health is working with the federal government and local authorities to sequence samples of the virus and detect strains. Spokesperson Donna Leusner said DOH is focused on sequencing “outbreaks with an atypical transmission pattern, cases with international travel to areas where variants are prevalent and random samples of positive COVID-19 cases” from across the state.
The state is working with CDC and private labs, including Princeton University and Hackensack Meridian Health, to find the variants, said Leusner, adding that DOH is still trying to expand its efforts.
As these efforts are increasing, the department has reported more variant cases. In just over two weeks, the number of cases for the UK variant more than quadrupled, from 11 on February 3 to 50. No cases of the South African or Brazilian variants were reported in NJ.
But since coronavirus sample sequencing is being done by laboratories at the state and federal levels, and in the private sector, Leusner said it is difficult to estimate what percentage of the samples are being checked for variants daily.
Samuel Wang, a neuroscientist at Princeton University who studies the virus, said it is less important to know the exact number of cases of variants in the state than to know how often the variants appear in the samples.
“Yes, it is clear that the actual number (of cases) is greater,” said Wang. “But since the sequel costs extra money and resources, there’s no problem that they haven’t captured them all.
“It would be more useful for public health officials to say what percentage of the samples show the UK variant. This would be very useful to put the threat in perspective. “
But the State Department of Health also does not know this percentage.
So the relatively low number of variant cases reported in New Jersey and other states is probably making the situation look better than it really is, said Preeti Malani, director of health for the Infectious Diseases and Geriatric Medicine Divisions at the University of Michigan.
“We are a little bit like we were last winter, (saying) ‘Oh, we don’t have any COVID, because we don’t look,'” said Malani of tracking down virus variants.
Despite the lack of specific data on variant tracking in NJ, Malani said the state’s strategy of tracking anomalies in how the virus is spreading is a smart way to potentially identify different variants.
“If you’re seeing people coming in with serious illnesses, you probably want to sequence that, people with travel histories,” said Malani. “As people get vaccinated, if there are fully vaccinated people who are getting COVID, you should sequence that. If something doesn’t make sense or if there is a group of younger, healthier people. “
It was inevitable that the coronavirus mutated. Virus mutations are common. Think of the organic evolution in hypervelocity. In a study published earlier this month, a group of scientists identified seven variants that are believed to mutate in the United States. Still, the CDC is paying more attention to the UK, South Africa and Brazil variants.
These three variants are believed to spread more easily than the strain that paralyzed much of the world last year, although the CDC recognizes that it has a lot to learn. Vaccines now being mass produced are still considered effective in preventing serious diseases, even in variants.
But until more people are vaccinated, the variants pose a real threat. British scientists are now saying that the UK variant, called B.1.1.7, is probably hospitalizing and killing people at a higher rate than the dominant strain of the virus.
Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist who advised the British government, told The New York Times this month that the UK variant appears to have a 40% to 60% increase in the risk of hospitalization and death.
This increased risk made tracing variants even more important for states and the federal government.
“We know you’re here and we will do more sequencing, but it doesn’t change the fact that we need to follow the same preventive measures, including vaccination,” said Leusner.
Each day brings reports of more variants of the coronavirus being detected across the country. But health experts say the instructions to the public remain the same: wear masks and stay away from people. With the expansion of access to the vaccine, variants could still be controlled.
“If we can encourage people to persist a little longer,” said Silvera. “We are entering a full year now.
“But if we manage to spend the next few months and really speed up the vaccination process, the new variants will not be so worrying, because we will have them under control.”
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Payton Guion can be contacted at [email protected].
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